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The best market timing for Silver

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
July 28 - 2014
Raymond A. Merriman©

Financial Market Analyst & Market Timer.

The printed version of Forecast 2014 has been translated into several different languages again this year as follows :

ChineseChinese        Dutch        Deutsch         Japanese       Russian                               Spanish       Italiano

Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2014, as will our Chinese distributor : Your work is essential to anyone who is serious in this field. I can't thank you enough for it.

Go to the sheet for Downloading the video for the Ultimate book on stock market timing.

Please note : The Forecast 2014 Book is now available at a reduced price of $ 35.00 while supplies last. The year is now nearly half over, and already many of the forecasts made have unfolded.
In Late September, we will begin taking pre-orders for Forecast 2015 at a special pre-publication price. Stay tuned for details.

Review and Preview :

Both the S&P and NASDAQ soared most of last week. The S&P made another new all-time high on July 24, and the NASDAQ tested 4500 on the same day, it highest price in 14 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, did not make a new all-time high last week. Its all-time high remains at 17,151 on - guess what ? - July 17, our last three-star critical reversal date, also given in the Forecast 2014 Book.

After rallying into Thursday of last week, as the Sun completed it annual conjunction to Jupiter (the "Great Benefic") in Leo (another "Great Benefic" by sign), each of those indices fell hard on Friday. The DJIA, for instance, was down 123 points, closing at 16,960.

The stock indices of the rest of the world was pretty mixed up last week. In South America, Brazil's Bovespa soared to 58,138, its highest mark since March 2013. Argentina's Marvel Index, on the other hand, fell to 7923, its lowest level in a month, and well off its all-time high of 8925 on July 14. I guess that will show President Kirchner the folly of not showing up at the World Cup Soccer Championship in Brazil a couple of weeks ago to join Russian head of state Vladimir Putin and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel as guests of Brazilian President Dilma Rouseff.

However, the attendance of Putin didn't seem to help Russia's equity fortunes last week, as Moscow's MICEX index fell to 1384, its lowest level in over two months. That is a decline of over 10% since only July 8. The western world's economic sanctions for Russia's continued military presence on the Ukraine border are beginning to hurt, all part of the ramifications of having a birthdate that fell right in the thick of the grand cardinal cross in late April (Putin's birthday is October 7, 1952 ; his natal Sun is at that critical 13-14 degrees of Libra, a cardinal sign, where the grand cross occurred).

Stock prices did not fare much better in the rest of Europe. Since its all-time highs of June 20 and July 3 at slightly over 10,000, the German DAX fell to the 9600 area for the third time last week. A close below 9600 will be a technical breakdown. The Netherlands AEX also made a new long-term cycle crest in the first week of July, but also fell hard to close down last week. The same was basically true with Switzerland's SMI index. But it was a different story in Great Britain where London's FTSE index rallied all week, closing just 60+ points off its all-time high of 6894 made back on May 15. It's all about the currency, as the Euro (and Swiss Franc) fell to its lowest level since November 2013. Well, as stated here many times, Europe needs to bring down the value of the Euro if it wants to continue to complete on world markets.

In the Far East and Pacific Rim, things really heated up last week, another indication that the economic power is shifting from the West to the East. India's Sensex made a new all-time high, while Australia's All Ordinaries and the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong soared to their highest levels in over three years. China's Shanghai Index made a big leap higher, as did Japan's Nikkei index. There were no down thrusts here. Everything was up, up and up.

In other markets, the precious metals had a wild ride last week. On Thursday, July 24, Gold fell to 1287.50, below the 1292.60 low the prior week that generated our special alert. I was beginning to think, "Well, so much for that special alert on Gold. At least there was nothing or little lost if you placed your stop-loss below the 1292.60 low of July 15, when the special alert was issued". However, on Friday, Gold closed up $14.40, at 1308.50. Yet the time for this low was still within the first of two possible time bands (July 14-25) connected to the transit of Mars through Scorpio. And the price target for the low given in that special alert was not violated.

Best Trades of the Past Week :

The best trade of the week in the weekly subscription report was in the S&P e-mini contract, which advised , "Position traders are flat and may sell short during the week if prices enter or exceed weekly resistance (1985.50-1989.75) and then have a daily close back below, with a stop-loss on a close above that high or 1990, depending on your risk allowance". Bingo! The high of the week was 1985.75 on the Sun conjunct Jupiter day of July 24. It closed the week at 1971.50.

The best trade of the week in the daily reports was in Thursday's SLV (the Silver ETF), which advised, "Aggressive traders are still short with a stop-loss on a close above 20.57 after covering 2/3 for profits last week. Traders may now cover the rest at 19.75 +/- 6 if offered and go long there with a stop-loss on a close below 19.00". It went as low as 19.50 and closed at 19.87, yielding a nice profit on the shorts and closing the week in the money on the longs. Thursday's advice on the NASDAQ E-Mini contract may have been even better, as it stated, "Aggressive traders (may) sell again at 3990-4000 with a stop-loss on a close above 4030". Bingo! The high that day was a new contract high of 3991.50. It closed the week at 3955.50.

For more information on the daily or weekly market reports, please follow this link, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.

Short-Term Geocosmics :  

The all-time high in the DJIA (July 17) and S&P (July 24) fit very well with the transit of Mars through 23-28 Libra, which formed a conjunction to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction in the "Buttonwood" chart that represents the start of the New York Stock Exchange (May 17, 1792). Now Mars enters Scorpio, July 25-September 13, a time that usually represents more of a struggle for USA stocks, and more support for commodities like precious metals.

The week will start off with Venus transiting in a T-square formation to the ongoing Uranus-Pluto waxing square. This T-square will be in force July 28-31. Venus rules things of value, like stocks and currencies. Its first aspect is an opposition to Pluto in Capricorn on Monday, July 28. This pertains to debt and taxes, and the big issue on the docket today in the USA is tax reform -especially corporate tax reform.

The USA currently has the highest corporate tax rate in the world, and USA companies are buying up foreign businesses at an alarming rate in order to move their headquarters oversees, save monies from the tax man, and be more competitive with other world businesses. Instead of recognizing the source of this problem (corporate tax rates are too high and make USA businesses less competitive on world markets) and correcting the corporate tax code (lower the world's highest tax rate so that companies in other countries relocate here and pay taxes), the White House is in the process of proposing penalties on these companies to force them to stay and pay higher taxes under the guilt trip that they are not being "patriotic", by wanting to avoid higher taxes. In America we have a saying for decisions like this that fail to address the real problem by trying reframe ("spin") the problem and applying a fix that doesn't solve the issue at all. It's called "ass backwards". You are going to hear a lot about this government's "ass backwards" effort to deal with this corporate tax issue in the coming days with Venus in opposition to Pluto. Basic Economics 101 is this : you raise more tax revenues by having more businesses employ more people with lower tax rates, than you do with higher rates. Higher rates drive businesses away, because it takes away their profits, and results in less hiring of people who also pay taxes.

In terms of financial markets, the Venus opposition to Pluto and square to Uranus can coincide with sudden reversals. In stocks for instance, just as a fast as stocks fell late last week, they could spring right back from a low that forms during this period. But will they make a new all-time high ? If not, then the technical picture will look bleak, a lot of like the summer-fall 1987.

Longer-Term Thoughts :

I had the opportunity to listen to Randy Fredericks talk about the bullish and bearish case for stocks at a Charles Schwab seminar this past week. It was a very good talk, well-thought out from both a fundamental and technical - and even cyclical/seasonal - point of view. I am beginning to think that "cyclical" and "historical" are like siblings in the same family.

In his presentation, Fredericks expounded on several bearish considerations regarding U.S. equities. Amongst the concerns he notes, "slow seasonals". He studies show that Memorial Day through Labor Day is a much slower growth period for stocks than the norm. Even in 2013, stock prices fell during this season. He sees some trouble ahead in the last quarter of this year, for many reasons. One study I found particularly interesting was his chart on "high margin debt levels". The last time this indicator peaked (like it is now) was in mid-late 2007, just before the stock market registered its then all-time high (October 11, 2007). This was followed by the sharpest decline since the Great Depression, lasting October 11, 2007 through March 9, 2009.

He also pointed out many bullish indicators, including the actions of the Federal Reserve Board. He is not worried that the Fed's balance sheet is loaded with Treasuries that will go down in value if rates go up. He is not worried because he sees no reason why the Fed has to "unwind", or sell them. They can just let them mature in 7-8 years, when most are due, without any concurrences. The Fed already has enough cash. it doesn't need to sell the bonds before maturity, and take a loss.

A lot of Frederick's thoughts fit in nicely with cyclical and geocosmic studies, which I will discuss in the monthly MMA Cycles Report, due out to subscribers on Monday evening, July 28. But one thing worries me : if the Fed is content to sit on its holdings, most of which mature in 7-8 years, doesn't that mean the USA will have a very huge debt to pay then (when they mature) ? How will they pay it ? I note that in January 2020, Saturn (loss) will conjunct Pluto (debt) on the USA's Pluto return in late Capricorn. That's a subject I will tackle in the Forecast 2015 Book.

For now, let's enjoy the summer season of Leo, the sign of fun, sun, and parties. Let's enjoy at least until Mars in Scorpio meets Saturn in Scorpio on August 25. It should get plenty hot by then, both weather wise (watch out for forest fires) and politically (watch Putin, Obama, and the USA mid-term elections).

To be continued (next week).

Announcements :

             MMA's weekly and daily reports have been extremely accurate and profitable over the past several weeks, especially in equity indices, crude oil, and precious metals. If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or Daily Market reports. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or weekly basis. These weekly reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF's). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). And since early December, these reports have been extremely profitable. As subscriber and trader R.B. of Albuquerque, NM writes, "You have been on an incredible run for a while ; I have never seen anything like it". Well, when everything lines up just right...

             The seventh and final Course in the 2-year the MMTA (Merriman Market Timing Academy) training program will take place August 25-28, 2014, at the Michigan State University's Management Educational Center (MEC) in Troy, Michigan. The title of this course is "Strategies : Putting It All Together". This course will go over each part of the various investment and trading plans using the market timing, technical, price objective, and trend indicator tools studied in these courses. Special attention will be given to the various buy and sell strategies for both position and aggressive traders, once the market enters the time band for a geocosmic critical reversal zone or solar-lunar reversal date. The cost of this course is $3600, and it is available on line or via live attendance. For further information, please visit www.mmacycles.com, www.merrimanmta.com, call 1-248-626-3034, or email ordersmma@msn.com. The course will be open to all subscribers to join.

             The first year of MMTA (the Merriman Market Timing Academy) is now completed! The courses (all 4 together, or separately) are available via our LMS website-uploadable venue (no postage), or in DVD, to those who wish to become students of MMA's methodology. Each course comes with a full workbook (90-130 pages each). For a complete description of these courses - and those yet to come - please visit www.merrimanmta.com, or call 1-248-626-3034.

             Our monthly MMA Cycles report and its companion MMA Japanese Cycles and MMA European Cycles reports will come out this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, or attachment via direct emails, for subscribers. There will be a Special Report on the USA Stock Market in this month's edition of the MMA Cycles Report.

- This report covers our long term analysis of the stock market (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, T-Notes, Euro and Swiss Franc currencies, grains and crude oil. It also provides the list of geocosmic and solar-lunar reversal zones for the 1-2 months. This report comes out Monday night to subscribers.
- The MMA Japanese Markets Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen.
- The new MMA Europe Cycles report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX stock indices, each in english only and will be available on Wednesday.
Two-issue trial subscriptions are available for this service for $50.00, which includes the current issue and the next month's as well.
For subscription information, please go to our web site, or call us at 1-248-626-3034. If you are not a subscriber, you can check this service out on a 2-month trial basis for only $50.00.

             Speaking of our weekly subscription reports, we now offer a new one titled : MMA Weekly Treasuries, Soybeans, and Crude Oil Report. This will be a 3-5 page report offering comments, analysis, forecasts, and trading strategy for next week's market activity in the U.S. 10-Year T-Notes (Treasuries), Soybeans, and Crude Oil futures only. List of support/resistance areas, trend indicator points, geocosmic and lunar reversal points for the week, cycles phasing, and recommended buy and sell strategies. The cost is $750/yr or $250/3 months. We will offer a one-month trial subscription for $50.00, available only until August 15, as part of our introduction to this new service. Subscriptions are delivered by downloadable postings on the MMA Website, which is entered via your personal password. It is also delivered via an email attachment to all subscribers over the weekend before the market opens.

             If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations, (see a sample there, of the weekly). It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report.
If you want more information call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers :I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations.  I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA.  In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000.  Thanks for your excellent publications. - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.  

Upcoming Events :

             August 25-28, 2014 : MMTA Course 7 : "Combining Technical Studies, Cycles, and Critical Reversal Dates for Traders". The final course of the 2-year academy.

             September 25-28, 2014 : The ISAR International Astrology Conference, Phoenix, AZ. This will be the "big one" next year with dozens of well-known international astrologers present ! Mark your calendars and plan to attend it. Information will soon be available at www.iasastrology.com.

            January 16, 2015 : Zurich, Switzerland "Trends for 2015".  This will part of a congress on Forecasts for 2015, including Claude Weiss, Monica Kissling. Alexandra Klingenhammer, Verena Bachmann, and Christoph-Schubert-Weller.

             January 17, 2015 : Zurich, Switzerland. A special 5-hour workshop on "The Current Cyclical State of Financial Markets : Where Do We Go from Here ?" 10:30 AM - 4:30 PM. Location will be the Congress House in Zurich. Sponsored by AstroData and MMA-Europe.
For further information, please go to there, or contact ASTRODATA AG, Tel. 41 (0) 43 343 33 66, or email. This will be special, and a great opportunity to meet some very impressive market timers who will be present. Register now as seating is limited !.

             The MMA Catalogue of products and services for 2013 is now out!!! You can download it in PDF. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not mail these out by mail unless requested.

             We are pleased to announce that the Spanish publication of Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing has just been completed. For more information and ordering, please contact www.lecochonsideral.info/semana.html.

             I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 545-5837. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as to exactly when to enter and exit any market. They will be more than happy to assist you.

             To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded theBest in-house fund of funds in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, please contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.

             The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifiesBig Range Days - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders : high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is thatextra edge. And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.


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