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The best market timing for Silver

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
May 20 - 2019
Raymond A. Merriman©

Financial Market Analyst & Market Timer.

This year's printed version of Forecast 2019 will also be available in these other languages, as follows :

        Dutch        Deutsch         Japanese      

Go to the sheet for Downloading the video for the Ultimate book on stock market timing.

Note : The purpose of this column is to provide educational insights into the tenets of geocosmic studies as they correspond to economic, political, and socio-psychological matters, as one of several tools that in turn may assist in the practice of financial market timing. This column is not intended, nor should it be used, as an advisory service for trading financial markets, without use of other financial market analysis tools. MMA subscription reports provide that type of advisory service, with specific recommendations for trading.

Review and Preview :

Imposing tariffs on China and other nations trying to send their goods to the U.S. not only raises the prices of those products for Americans, it also gives targeted nations an incentive to develop markets, and long-term trade ties in other countries. At the same time, those foreign nations can retaliate by cutting purchases of American goods, or by slapping retaliatory tariffs of their own on American products, making them less competitive. - Gerald F. Seib, "U.S. Risks Overusing Its Economic Weapons", Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2019.

Trump might believe that he can bully Beijing into accepting a one-sided enforcement mechanism under which the United States is allowed to impose retaliatory tariffs in case of a dispute while China is not. That simply isn't going to happen. Nor will China agree to stop subsidizing industries. Asians have subsidized capital-intensive industries since Japan's 1868 Meiji Restoration, and that won't change any time soon... "Forced technology transfers" to China are for the most part mythical. The reality is that America's largest technology companies from Intel to Boeing are lining up to hand their technology to China in the context of their strategy for China's domestic market. The emerging consensus is that Trump isn't fooling anyone. At the end of the day he wants a deal as much as do the Chinese. - David P. Goldman, "Buy Chinese Stocks on the Dip", https://www.asiatimes.com, May 6, 2019.

It's a classic conflict - battle - between cycles, geocosmic and technical studies, and fundamentals.

Many of the world's stock indices bottomed early last week, after 2-3 weeks of tumultuous declines. These same equity markets then rallied nicely into the end of the week, before starting to pullback by the close on Friday. The entire period was bookended by the Sun/Uranus conjunction of April 22 and the Venus/Uranus conjunction of May 17. When Uranus is prominent, financial markets often become chaotic and unstable. The dramatic turns in equity markets often mirror the dramatic reversals in political and economic thinking (fundamentals). Thus, we have a condition where the studies of cycles and technical analysis indicate a correction should be over and a huge rally - consistent with the geocosmic placement of Jupiter in Sagittarius - should resume. Yet at the same time, the prominence of Uranus has investors on edge because of the sudden reversal in trade talks, especially between the U.S. and China, but also between the U.S. and Europe, and maybe other nations. This is exacerbated further by the President as he puts into action new tariffs, which are akin to taxes on the U.S. consumer, which in turn wipes out much of the economic gains that were initiated with his December 21, 2017 Tax Reform Act.

The two things we must constantly remind ourselves of from the geocosmic perspective is this : Jupiter in Sagittarius (November 8, 2018 through December 2, 2019) is theoretically a time when world trade increases. Trade deals would normally - naturally - be unfolding and worldwide economic growth would normally be expanding. Secondly, at the same time, Jupiter is in a three-passage series of a waning square aspects to Neptune, January-September 2019. The waning square is arguably the most difficult of all aspects to navigate easily through. Under such a combination, one must be careful not to believe anything you read or hear, for Jupiter tends to exaggerate (especially in Sagittarius) and Neptune tends to distract and veer far away from facts or truth. When one believes what is written or spoken, there is a risk of being misled, a setup for a major disappointment when things don't go the way you were led to expect. It is a time of disillusionment, false hopes and futile wishes. Thus, financial markets, like stocks, rally because the investment community believes a trade deal is imminent. And then when it is suddenly alleged that one side has broken a promise (typical allegation under Jupiter/Neptune), and trade talks fall apart, the markets hemorrhage and a mini-crisis erupts. That is what happened April 22-May 17.

We saw this sudden reversal characteristic of Uranus erupt in Bitcoin too since April 22. A primary cycle bottomed on April 26 at 4983, right in the middle of Saturn and Pluto also turning retrograde. Then, in classical Uranus fashion (especially in the money sign of Taurus), Bitcoin exploded to a 9-month high of 8390 on May 16. By Friday, May 17, just one day later, it fell over 20% to 6620.

The uncertainty and confusion in the political and economic realm also buoyed treasury prices higher, as a "safe haven" location for investors to park monies until the trade dispute clears up. The Ten-Year Notes are near 125, approaching their highest level since late 2017. Usually, when T-Notes go up (interest rates come down), the U.S. Dollar goes down. But not this time, not under hard Uranus signatures where the norm no longer applies. The Dollar is going up, and combined with the Chinese cessation of buying Soybeans from the U.S. as a result of the U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese goods led to Soybean prices falling below $8.00/bu last week, something not seen in over 10 years. The President says that the tariffs on Chinese goods will be used to subsidize farmers going broke. But the problem is that farmers don't want to make money through government subsidies while their crop is wasted. They want to sell their crop they worked hard to produce. When American farmers lose their markets, other nations will establish ties with China and other countries and U.S. farmers may not regain their market share for a long time.

Short-Term Geocosmics and longer term thoughts :

We recommend that as you continue to negotiate new trade deals with our allies, you pursue the endgame goal of zero tariffs. You have said on several occasions that your objective is not protectionism but "to create a level playing field on trade". You have even suggested to our allies that both sides "drop all Tariffs, Barriers, and Subsidies". Your Council of Economic Advisors report the average American tariff is 3.5% while the average EU rate is 5% (and) China is nearly 10%... We also believe that securing zero for zero trade deals would result in an expansion of global commerce that would reduce poverty and add trillions of dollars to the global economic output. (It) will help make the U.S. and world economies great again. - Steve Forbes, Fred Smith, Stephen Moore, and Arthur Laffler of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, "Mr. President, It's Time for Zero Tariffs", Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2018, and quoted in the Forecast 2019 Book.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang laid out conditions for a return to negotiations. "First : principles. That means there has to be mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit. Second : good faith. One must match words with actions". - Lin Zhu, "China Plays Down U.S. Trade Talks", Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2019.

Last week's column elicited a lot of response from Trump supporters, questioning whether I think the U.S. and the White House should let China just run over Americans. I think the point I am making was missed. I am entirely for the White House negotiating, in good faith, for the best and fairest deal it can make to help Americans. And I believe the Chinese should - and will - do the same. My intent is much simpler. It is to alert readers to the consequences - danger - of using tariffs as a weapon to force the other side's hand in negotiations. The history of doing so is not a pretty one (it was a major cause that led the world into the Great Depression, and by extension, World War II). When the tariffs first started in early 2018 (when Soybeans were trading over 30% higher), many commentators stated it would not lead to a trade war. This column warned otherwise. Indeed, it is a trade war now, and it just keeps escalating (remember : you cannot believe what you read and hear under Jupiter square Neptune - promises made are not usually kept). And now we are approaching the heart of the Jupiter/Neptune square, June 9-24, a time when many anticipate that the two leaders (China and the U.S.) will meet at the next G-20 meeting and work out a deal. Again, it is the major aspect of the year, and it pertains to disillusionment and grandiose false hopes, and perhaps announcements that will likely not be deliverable upon critical examination. I am not sure if a more inopportune cosmic time could have been chosen for an agreement to be made that will hold up over time.

But let's briefly switch gears to the shorter-term cosmic outlook. The Venus/Uranus conjunction ends this weekend, concurrent with the full Moon in Scorpio. Venus and Scorpio are money indicators. Venus and Taurus rule the accumulation (saving) of monies, as well as agreements. With Uranus, it is hard to come by an agreement because Uranus is a maverick, a rebel, and not prone to agreeing to anything that it views as restrictive to its independence to do whatever it wishes. Scorpio pertains to the leveraging (debt) process of dealing with finances. The debt continues to escalate in the U.S. and is becoming a greater concern again - not to mention that China owns much of that debt via its U.S. Treasury holdings. Because they act like taxes (and taxes are also a Scorpio matter), the tariffs are front and center on investors' minds right now. However, the turbulence of markets may start to calm down shortly, as developments of resuming trade talks are announced - until we get to June 9-24.

The Sun and Mercury both enter the intellectual and talkative sign of Gemini this week, on May 21. This is followed by a new Moon in Gemini on June 3-4. This implies many discussions taking place, a lot of new and innovative ideas developed to solve problems, if only the thinkers could reflect a moment and focus on each of these ideas fully - and not be tempted to dismiss them for more new ideas before seriously considering those that are already on the table. The danger is that negotiators (and leaders) become too scattered, too restless and unfocused, creating a sense of nervousness and inability to come to a solid plan before the dung hits the fan June 9-24, and then it is back to square one. Again, with all the hurried activity present May 21-June 4, investors are vulnerable to being duped into believing that a deal is ready to be cemented, only to be disappointed again because it hasn't been well-thought out.

June will probably be the month where we see who really wants and needs a deal the most, who is most desperate for a deal, and who is most prepared to make a good deal. The most impatient party loses. The same can be said about the most inflexible party. Impatience and inflexibility are characteristics that can lead to another major disappointment. Let's hope our leaders can rise above this and do something good that will be fair, equitable, and benefit the entire world. If not, we just get closer and closer to the Capricorn Stellium, with Saturn and Pluto conjunct, in January 2020. The consequences of today's decisions and actions are likely to manifest then.

Longer-Term thoughts :

U.

To be continued (next week).

Announcements :

             Note 1 : The Monthly MMTA International Cycles Report (ICR) will come out this week. This issue will include second round of three introductory analyses on two commodity markets: Coffee and Sugar. In late June, we will launch a new ICR Commodities Report, which will include not only Coffee and Sugar, but also Wheat and Corn, along with Live Cattle and a major Cannabis stocks (MJ), which are currently being offered as pilot reports in the MMA Cycles Report through May. After that, we will begin a new Monthly ICR Commodities Report that will include Coffee, Sugar, Live Cattle, Corn, and Wheat, plus Live Cattle and Cannabis. The monthly ICR report is probably the best kept secret for the timing and cyclical analysis of several international financial markets available today. It is an excellent report, written by several graduates and students of MMA's classic market timing methodology, including Mark Shtayerman (San Diego), Izabella Suleymanova (San Diego), Ulric Aspegren (Sweden). Each issue of ICR contains an in-depth analysis of the XAU index (Gold and Silver Mining stocks), the U.S. Dollar (DXY), British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), the Australian stock index (ASX), the London FTSE stock index, the Russell 2000 U.S. stock index (RUT), plus Corn (C), Wheat (W), Sugar, and Coffee until late June. For more information, call us at 248-626-3034, or 1-800-662-3349. Or, please visit http:// mmacycles.com/ > Subscription Services.

             Note 2 : The New ICR Cycles' Reports from MMA are Coming!!! Starting on July 2nd, we are going to expand our International Cycles Report (ICR) into two reports... ICR Financials and ICR Commodities . Each report will be covering 7 markets, and will cost, as follows (but there will be a special introductory offer - see below) :

ICR Financials : Cost: $325/ Year or $66/ 2 Months

Markets Covered: ASX (Australian Stock Index), RUT (Russell 2000), SSE (Chinese Shanghai Stock Composite), HSI (Hang Seng Index), AUD (Australian Dollar), DXY (US Dollar), and GBP (British Pound)

Release Date : Tuesday July 2, 2019

ICR Commodities : Cost: $325/ Year or $66/ 2 Months

Markets Covered: LC (Live Cattle), MJ (Cannabis), XAU (Gold and Silver), KT (Coffee), KA (Sugar), C (Corn), and W (Wheat)

Release Date: Wednesday July 3, 2019

If you sign up for either ICR Report by June 30 th , you will also receive - at no additional cost - the May issue of our current ICR Report, which contains our initial analysis of Coffee, Corn, Wheat, and Sugar. As a final BONUS, we will send you both the ICR Financials Report and the ICR Commodities Report in July so that you can see and experience both of our new reports. That's TWO reports- at no additional cost- just for trying our new report. SAVE 20% NOW ! If you wish to sign up for both the ICR Financials Report and ICR Commodities Report, we are offering a 20% off the yearly rate for both reports, valid until June 1. Instead of $650 for both reports, your cost will be $520- a savings of $130! Use code  ICR  at check out to receive the discount. For further information, visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services.

             Our monthly MMA Cycles : The monthly edition of the MMA Cycles Report (ICR) and its companion MMA Japanese Cycles and MMA European Cycles reports will be issued this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, or attachment via direct emails, for subscribers.

- This report covers our long term analysis of the stock market (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, T-Notes, Euro and Swiss Franc currencies, grains and crude oil. It also provides the list of geocosmic and solar-lunar reversal zones for the 1-2 months. This report comes out Monday night to subscribers.
- The MMA Japanese Markets Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen.
- The new MMA Europe Cycles report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX stock indices, each in english only and will be available on Wednesday.
Two-issue trial subscriptions are available for this service for $55.00, which includes the current issue and the next month's as well.
For subscription information, please go to our web site, or call us at 1-248-626-3034. If you are not a subscriber, you can check this service out on a 2-month trial basis for only $55.00.

             MMA's annual Forecast Book : The Forecast 2019 Book is done and nearly sold out. The orders received as of January 4 have been shipped out. As of the close of business that day, less than 25 books remain. When those remaining copies are sold out, they are gone. There will be no second printing. At that point, the only way to read Forecast 2019 will be through the eBook, which is available now for delivery to your inbox! ORDER NOW, if you have not done so already, and make sure you receive your copy of Forecast 2019 before they sell out. For more information on this annual best seller, go to https://mmacycles.com => Products => Forecast 2019.You may also email MMA at customerservice@mmacycles.com, or call 1-248-626-3034, 1-800-662-3349.

MMA's annual Forecasts Book , written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecast book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Specific markets analyzed for the next year(s) include: T-Notes and interest rates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, Silver, Currencies (U.S. Dollar, Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, and British Pound), Crude Oil, Grains and Weather. Each market contains the important geocosmic three-star critical reversal dates for 2018. Special sections also include the USA and world economy, the USA and world politics, the USA and its President. A 2019 ephemeris and calendar (one month per page) with geocosmic signatures is included, as well as descriptions of the Mercury retrograde periods for 2019. This is a book with an impressive background for insightful accuracy into world economic and financial market conditions that you will not want to miss! For further information, go to https://www.mmacycles.com and click the banner.

For more information, visit www.mmacycles.com or call 1-800-662-3349 or 1-248-626-3034.

This year's printed version of Forecast 2019 will also available in these languages :
Dutch : at www.markettiming.nl
German : at http://www.mma-europe.ch
Japanese : at http://merriman.jp
Chinese : www.nodoor.com

             MMA's weekly and daily subscription reports have been extremely accurate and profitable lately, catching the lows in metals, stocks, crude oil, soybeans, and currencies. If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or Daily Market reports. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or weekly basis. These weekly reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF's). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). And since early December, these reports have been extremely profitable. As subscriber and trader R.B. of Albuquerque, NM writes",You have been on an incredible run for a while ; I have never seen anything like it". Well, when everything lines up just right...

             If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations, (see a sample there, of the weekly). It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report.
If you want more information call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers : I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations.  I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA.  In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000. Thanks for your excellent publications. - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.  

Upcoming Events :

             A.

             June 8-16, 2019 : We now have the description posted on our website for the two weekend courses to take place in Beijing, China, June 8-9 and June 15-16 on "Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles", with Raymond Merriman. This special 2-weekend workshop will take place at the Beijing Broadcasting Tower Hotel, No. 14 Jianguomenwai Da Jie, Chaoyang, 100022 Beijing, China. This will be two intensive weekend Market Trading workshops focusing on the identifying the primary cycle and its phases used in trading several financial markets, with the emphasis on the U.S. and Chinese Shanghai stock indices and Gold (other markets will be included as well). The course will then take participants through the steps of narrowing the time band down for trading cycle highs and lows by applying geocosmic and solar/lunar studies. Once in the time band for a reversal, students will then learn how to apply various chart patterns and technical studies to identify the setup for optimal risk/reward opportunities. The workshop will take place on the weekends of June 8-9 and June 15-16 in Beijing. During the week, participants will have the option of taking tours with other MMA students to exciting areas of China. The cost for this unique and valuable 2-weekend trading course is $4000 (discounts will be available to subscribers of MMA Reports). For further information, please contact MMA at customerservice@mmacycles.com or call 1-248-626-3034 or 1-800-MMA-3349. Or, for a complete description of each course, go to:

https://mmacycles.com 

https://mmacycles.com

https://mmacycles.com

             I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 545-5837. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as to exactly when to enter and exit any market. They will be more than happy to assist you.

             To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded theBest in-house fund of funds in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, please contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.

             It is with great pleasure that I announce the addition of Egon von Greyerz to MMA Investment Retreat faculty of presenters. I met Egon last week in Girona, Spain, at a special gathering attended by MMTA Graduates Nitin Bhandari (India), Philipp Beyer (Germany), Henry Canciglia (USA) and myself. Egon is an expert on Gold. He owns Matterhorn Asset Management, a Swiss Asset Management company specializing in wealth preservation, located in Zurich ( www.goldswitzerland.com). He was also the person who initiated the "Save Our Swiss Gold"Act in Switzerland late last year, which would have required the Swiss National Bank to back up their assets with 20% Gold holdings. The initiative failed, but his reasons for initiating this effort are still valid. Egon is very interested in MMA cycles' work, and will share his outlook on Gold and the world debt. This is a real treat!

             The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book :Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifiesBig Range Days - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders : high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is thatextra edge. And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

             The new book titled Solar-Lunar Keys to Gold Prices : Secrets of a Gold Trader , is now out. The long awaited sequel to the Secrets of a Silver Trader is due out in late October (maybe before)!!!
Now, GOLD as you have never seen it by night or day. The studies for the soon-to-be-released book are now completed and the results are now being used in the weekly and daily MMA subscription reports for short-term trading strategies in Gold. That's right... historically tested Solar-Lunar Correlations to trading reversals in the Gold Market - as only available from Raymond Merriman. The studies cover over 40 years of daily Gold, starting from December 31, 1974 through April 2015. The book will change how you approach trading Gold using these leading solar-lunar indicators, with very clear instructions as to "when"to expect 3%, 4%, or greater reversals in Gold prices and how to trade them. It will be a valuable guide for short-term traders of Gold, GLD, and other ETF's involving Gold prices. You may call 1-248-626-3034 or email ordersmma@gmail.com and place your pre-order now. It is also now available for purchase on the MMA web site at www.mmacycles.com. Order now and get the first printing of this new book on trading Gold!

Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.


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