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MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
Auguste 19 - 2019
Raymond A. Merriman©
Financial Market Analyst & Market Timer.
This year's printed version of Forecast 2019 will also be available in these other languages, as follows :
Go to the sheet for Downloading the video for the Ultimate book on stock market timing.
Note : The purpose of this column is to provide educational insights into the tenets of geocosmic studies as they correspond to economic, political, and socio-psychological matters, as one of several tools that in turn may assist in the practice of financial market timing. This column is not intended, nor should it be used, as an advisory service for trading financial markets, without use of other financial market analysis tools. MMA subscription reports provide that type of advisory service, with specific recommendations for trading.
Review and Preview :
The yield curve is blaring a recession warning. The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months. "Historically, the 2-10 has had better predictive ability of recession than equities", Sri Kumar, president of the Santa Monica, California-based Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told Fox Business. Jonathan Garber, "Recession Indicator, with Perfect Record Flashing Red", https://www.foxbusiness.com.
The contrast is absolutely exquisite.
As I sit here in the Castello di Montegufoni, a 12 th century castle nestled in the rolling hills of Tuscany, Italy, listening to the sound of a gentle wind rustling the leaves of stately trees outside my window on a lazy Wednesday afternoon, while the sublime peach-colored light of the comforting Sun passes in and out of shadowy patterns forming across the splendid renaissance paintings on my ceilings and walls, I realize what a transcendent moment this is in my life. You see, I just got married to the most beautiful woman I have ever met, in the most perfect wedding ceremony, on a Rhine River cruise ship hired for this special event, consisting of 140 of the most beautiful people in the world - family and friends - that I know.
I look at my cell phone (there is a contrast already, to being in a 12 th century, Florentine castle, but actually living in the 21 st century), and see the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 800 points. I call my office, to be informed that clients are upset I am not writing a letter during this time that the financial world is in panic. Of course, they do not know that I can't write from here. The WIFI is not strong enough to bring in the numbers and the charts of my market programs without "timing out" every few minutes. So, on the one hand, I feel distraught that I cannot serve my clients as Rome is burning but I cannot get a strong enough internet signal to react. On the other hand, there is this beautiful muse that I married, teasing me that, "Well, Mr. Merriman, you will just have to sit here doing nothing for a few days, but relax and enjoy all my charms in this surreal part of nature that you cannot find anywhere else on the planet".
"Damn", I think to myself, "This is really hard to be born with Venus conjunct Jupiter in Scorpio in the second house. To have to choose between being frustrated that I cannot get reports out to my loyal clients as the stock markets of the world are crashing or being overjoyed at my good fortune to be surrounded by such beauty that men (and women) only dream of". And then I realize. To everything under heaven there is a season. This is my season to live a dream. Next week I will return to the parallel universe. I will miss the gentle winds blowing through the trees of Tuscany outside my medieval castle window as the glistening rays of the Sun god glide over my bed, as I morph in and out of these beautiful dream states. I know that next week I will be dealing instead with hurricanes. But for now, I cannot chase those calamities, for I do not have the tools of the 21st century needed to do so. I am pleasurably stuck in the 12 th century, which was built just before the times when the di Medici's invented the profitable world of banking and currency trading.
Come to think about it, this castle was probably built around the last time that the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction began its Great Mutation in air signs. For the first time in 800 years, this cycle will get fully underway again for the next 140-200 years. I will have more to say about that in the forthcoming Forecast 2020 Book . For one thing, the shift from earth signs (since 1802) into air signs (December 2020) signifies a shift from materialism as status, back to intellectual and artistic talents as status. Maybe it's one reason why I am not panicking now. I don't believe money and centralized government control will be nearly as important in the next 200 years as they have been in the last 200 years. It will take time to undergo this process, but it could very well be observable within the next 20 years.
Castello di Montegufoni. Check it out at http://www.montegufoni.it. You just might have a similar experience "somewhere in time", as I am having. It is quite pleasant, if you can allow yourself to be a free of your normal addiction to responsibilities for a brief period of time.
Short-Term Geocosmics and longer term thoughts :
" Cycle studies suggest the crest of a 4-year cycle will be completed by October 2019 and probably before the end of July 2019. You can also see from this graph that long-term cycle highs tend to occur when helio Jupiter is in Sagittarius, which is in effect October 6, 2018 through October 19, 2019 . Jupiter transiting through Sagittarius is a reason to think that the U.S. stock market could make yet another high, above the all-time high of October 3, 2018. With this study in mind, we will look for the high of October 3, 2018, to be tested, and even taken out in 2019". Forecast 2019 Book (PS- as of writing we only have 2 print copies left in stock- hurry!).
For the past several months, our reports have alerted readers that this bull market could end within two months of August 2019, based on the history of the Jupiter-in-Sagittarius correlation. The all-time high to date in the DJIA has been July 16, one day past our July 12-15 two-star CRD (Critical Reversal Date) and on the lunar eclipse. The S&P and NASDAQ made their all-time highs one week later, without confirmation from the DJIA, which was our geocosmic and technical signal that the high was likely in. However, the cyclical and pattern studies will not give a confirmation signal to a bear market until prices fall below their primary cycle lows of two months ago. Nevertheless, when clients ask me if I think the bull market is over and the bear market is underway, my answer, for now, is "Yes", based on the geocosmic correlations and divergences that happened in late July and early August. The market's behavior since that time has been typically "bear market behavior". That is, every rally is followed by a more severe decline, and every buy signal short-term is followed by a stronger sell signal short-term. Plus, the timing of the July highs is right on time. It is true that there is still time for the market to make new highs while Jupiter is in Sagittarius, and it could, as long as the DJIA holds above 24,680, but I would not count on it.
In addition to the correlation of highs with Jupiter in Sagittarius, we are also now in the 4-week orb of the Sun/Mars conjunction that takes place on September 2. This time band has a strong correlation to 8-20% reversals from highs or lows in world stock indices. Thus, we should not be surprised if that type of decline is now underway. It also implies that once this selloff is completed, an 8-20% rally will likely follow. But an 8-20% gain represents far less value than an 8-20% decline.
The major geocosmic changes of this week involve the Sun, Venus, and Mars all leaving the sign of Leo for Virgo. This has importance to the chart of President Donald Trump, for each will cross his natal Ascendant and Mars in late Leo. As mentioned several times before, and proven to be correct, the major threat to the national and world economy and stock markets is the political threat. We are likely to see this drama continue to unfold through October. There may be some positive news on the trade situation with China and/or the Federal Reserve Board now through the following 1-2 weeks (August 24-September 1), and this may lift stock prices. But the opportunity for a favorable resolution to China and the U.S. trade war has probably passed for now, and the new down trend in U. S. equities appears to be established. A close above 26,800 begins to challenge this bias. For traders, this probably does not matter, for you can gain more profit being short in a bear market than long in a bull market, for shorter periods of time.
We will return to our normal schedule next week, after August 20. In the meantime, from the bottom of my heart, I wish to express my appreciation and gratitude to all who have sent me congratulatory messages regarding my perfect wedding ceremony and festivities last week. It was a great experience, with 140 friends and relatives present for our Rhine River Cruise and the parties that followed for the next two days. And now the honeymoon, during the financial and stock market crises of the past two weeks. Well, I regret I was away during this period (and still am until the middle of this week). It always seems to happen that when I take time off, the markets decide to explode or implode. Either I plan too well, or I have a strange but wonderful karma.
Longer-Term thoughts and opinions :
To be continued (next week).
Note 1 : The ICR (International Cycles Reports) from MMA , was issued last week July 30-31. The ICR Financials includes analysis on ASX (Australian Stock Index), RUT (Russell 2000), SSE (Chinese Shanghai Stock Composite), HSI (Hang Seng Index), AUD (Australian Dollar), DXY (US Dollar), and GBP (British Pound). The new ICR Commodities Report includes analysis on LC (Live Cattle), MJ (Cannabis), XAU (Gold and Silver), KT (Coffee), KA (Sugar), C (Corn), and W (Wheat). These reports are written by MMA Analyst and editor Mark Shyterman (metals, stock indices, and soft commodities), MMA Analyst Raymond Merriman (China markets), MMA Analyst Ulric Aspegren (Currencies), Isabella Suleymanov (Grains), and Massimo Moras (Live Cattle and Hang Seng).Consider taking out a subscription now to be included in our annual subscriber-only sale that begins next month. For further information, visit www.mmacycles.com > Shop > Subscriptions.
Note 2 : .
Note 3 : The MMA CYCLES 2020 VISION WEBINAR SERIES is over, but the MP4 recordings are now available. This live 2-hour webinar, sub-titled, " RE-FOCUS YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES : ALL CYCLES LEAD TO 2020" was led by MMA Analyst Kat Powell. It featured an in-depth look at longer-term cycles, trend patterns, and price targets for Silver and Soybeans, with additional insights provided on the U.S. stock market and Federal Reserve Board chart. Cost for the MP4 recording is $45.00 and includes PDF charts. Order now while it is fresh!.
Our monthly MMA Cycles : The monthly edition of the MMA Cycles Report (ICR) and its companion MMA Japanese Cycles and MMA European Cycles reports went out last week. If you are subscriber to any these monthly reports and did not receive it, let us know at once via our email.
- This report covers our long term analysis of the stock market (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, T-Notes, Euro and Swiss Franc currencies, grains and crude oil. It also provides the list of geocosmic and solar-lunar reversal zones for the 1-2 months. This report comes out Monday night to subscribers.
- The MMA Japanese Markets Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen.
- The new MMA Europe Cycles report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX stock indices, each in english only and will be available on Wednesday.
Two-issue trial subscriptions are available for this service for $55.00, which includes the current issue and the next month's as well.
For subscription information, please go to our web site, or call us at 1-248-626-3034. If you are not a subscriber, you can check this service out on a 2-month trial basis for only $55.00.
MMA's annual Forecast Book : The Forecast 2019 Book is done and nearly sold out. The orders received as of January 4 have been shipped out. As of the close of business that day, less than 25 books remain. When those remaining copies are sold out, they are gone. There will be no second printing. At that point, the only way to read Forecast 2019 will be through the eBook, which is available now for delivery to your inbox! ORDER NOW, if you have not done so already, and make sure you receive your copy of Forecast 2019 before they sell out. For more information on this annual best seller, go to https://mmacycles.com => Products => Forecast 2019.You may also email MMA at firstname.lastname@example.org, or call 1-248-626-3034, 1-800-662-3349.
MMA's annual Forecasts Book , written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecast book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Specific markets analyzed for the next year(s) include : T-Notes and interest rates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, Silver, Currencies (U.S. Dollar, Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, and British Pound), Crude Oil, Grains and Weather. Each market contains the important geocosmic three-star critical reversal dates for 2018. Special sections also include the USA and world economy, the USA and world politics, the USA and its President. A 2019 ephemeris and calendar (one month per page) with geocosmic signatures is included, as well as descriptions of the Mercury retrograde periods for 2019. This is a book with an impressive background for insightful accuracy into world economic and financial market conditions that you will not want to miss! For further information, go to https://www.mmacycles.com and click the banner.
For more information, visit www.mmacycles.com or call 1-800-662-3349 or 1-248-626-3034.
This year's printed version of Forecast 2019 will also available in these languages :
Dutch : at www.markettiming.nl
German : at http://www.mma-europe.ch
Japanese : at http://merriman.jp
Chinese : www.nodoor.com
MMA's weekly and daily subscription reports have been extremely accurate and profitable lately, catching the lows in metals, stocks, crude oil, soybeans, and currencies. If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or Daily Market reports. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or weekly basis. These weekly reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF's). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). And since early December, these reports have been extremely profitable. As subscriber and trader R.B. of Albuquerque, NM writes",You have been on an incredible run for a while ; I have never seen anything like it". Well, when everything lines up just right...
If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations,
(see a sample there, of the weekly).
It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report.
If you want more information call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers : I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000. Thanks for your excellent publications. - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.
Upcoming Events :
I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at email@example.com, or 1-(303) 545-5837. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at firstname.lastname@example.org. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as to exactly when to enter and exit any market. They will be more than happy to assist you.
To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded theBest in-house fund of funds in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, please contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.
It is with great pleasure that I announce the addition of Egon von Greyerz to MMA Investment Retreat faculty of presenters. I met Egon last week in Girona, Spain, at a special gathering attended by MMTA Graduates Nitin Bhandari (India), Philipp Beyer (Germany), Henry Canciglia (USA) and myself. Egon is an expert on Gold. He owns Matterhorn Asset Management, a Swiss Asset Management company specializing in wealth preservation, located in Zurich ( www.goldswitzerland.com). He was also the person who initiated the "Save Our Swiss Gold"Act in Switzerland late last year, which would have required the Swiss National Bank to back up their assets with 20% Gold holdings. The initiative failed, but his reasons for initiating this effort are still valid. Egon is very interested in MMA cycles' work, and will share his outlook on Gold and the world debt. This is a real treat!
The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifiesBig Range Days - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders : high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is thatextra edge. And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.
The new book titled Solar-Lunar Keys to Gold Prices : Secrets of a Gold Trader , is now out. The long awaited sequel to the Secrets of a Silver Trader is due out in late October (maybe before)!!!
Now, GOLD as you have never seen it by night or day. The studies for the soon-to-be-released book are now completed and the results are now being used in the weekly and daily MMA subscription reports for short-term trading strategies in Gold. That's right... historically tested Solar-Lunar Correlations to trading reversals in the Gold Market - as only available from Raymond Merriman. The studies cover over 40 years of daily Gold, starting from December 31, 1974 through April 2015. The book will change how you approach trading Gold using these leading solar-lunar indicators, with very clear instructions as to "when"to expect 3%, 4%, or greater reversals in Gold prices and how to trade them. It will be a valuable guide for short-term traders of Gold, GLD, and other ETF's involving Gold prices. You may call 1-248-626-3034 or email email@example.com and place your pre-order now. It is also now available for purchase on the MMA web site at www.mmacycles.com. Order now and get the first printing of this new book on trading Gold!
Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.Valeur des terres Robert Loquet - Conseiller général