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The best market timing for Silver

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
August 7 - 2023
Raymond A. Merriman©

Financial Market Analyst & Market Timer.

This year's printed version of Forecast 2024 will also be available in these other languages, as follows :

ChineseChinese        Dutch        Deutsch         Japanese      

Go to the sheet for Downloading the video for the Ultimate book on stock market timing.

Note 1 : The purpose of this column is to provide educational insights into the tenets of geocosmic studies as they correspond to economic, political, and socio-psychological matters, as one of several tools that in turn may assist in the practice of financial market timing. This column is not intended, nor should it be used, as an advisory service for trading financial markets, without use of other financial market analysis tools. MMA subscription reports provide that type of advisory service, with specific recommendations for trading.

Review and Preview :

Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating weeks after President Biden and congressional Republicans came to the brink of a historic default, warning about the growing debt burden and political dysfunction in Washington. Fitch said Tuesday that the downgrade reflects an "erosion of governance" in the U.S. relative to other top-tier economies over the last two decades. Biden administration officials criticized Fitch's decision, blaming governance problems on the Trump administration and arguing that the U.S. was not at risk of missing its debt payments. - Matt Grossman and Andrew Duehren, "Fitch Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating", Wall Street Journal, August 1, 2023.

One of the credit rating agencies (it does not matter which) downgraded the US government from something (it does not matter what) to something else. Markets care about the fiscal position of the US, and the repeated farce of the debt ceiling debacle. They do not care what credit rating agencies think about the matter. Dr. Paul Donovan, "Things Which Do Not Matter", UBS Morning Audio Comment, August 2, 2023.

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 187,000 for the month, slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 200,000. Though the headline number was a miss, it actually represented a modest gain from the downwardly revised 185,000 for June. The unemployment rate was 3.5%, against a consensus estimate that the jobless level would hold steady at 3.6%.The rate is just above the lowest level since late 1969. - Jeff Cox, "The U.S. Economy Added 187,000 Jobs in July, Fewer than Expected", www.cnbc.com, August 4, 2023.

World equity markets reacted very closely to the planetary themes in the heavens. That is, most indices made new cycle - and in several cases, yearly - highs within two days of Mars forming a favorable waxing trine with Jupiter on August 1. But by the end of the week, as Sun approached its waxing square to Jupiter, most had commenced sharp declines.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the trading week was mostly similar. New cycle highs or double tops formed on July 31 or August 1 as Mars trined Jupiter. Most then fell somewhat sharply into Thursday-Friday, August 3-4. On exception was in India's NIFTY index, which made an all-time high On July 20 and declined all the way through the August 4, the end of last week. China's Shanghai Composite also differed at the end of the week when it rallied to a secondary high, rather than falling to a new low.

In Europe, the German DAX made a new all-time high on Monday, July 31. The Netherlands AEX soared to its highest mark 18 months the Friday before, on July 28. The Zurich SMI and London FTSE made also made cycle highs the prior week, July 27-28. All four indices sold off sharply into Thursday-Friday, August 3-4.

In Americas, there were noticeable differences on recent highs. The DJIA made a new yearly high on Monday, August 1. The S&P made its yearly high the week before, in July 27. The NASDAQ's yearly high was back on July 19, just prior to Venus turning retrograde. All three declined sharply into Thursday, August 3. On the news of the payroll reports, all rallied sharply the first half of the day, but then started to another sharp selloff afterwards, with the DJIA and S&P falling to new weekly lows. This type of intermarket bearish divergence is often a sign of lower prices to come - and maybe much lower prices if next week's (August 9) Venus/Uranus square is a breakout instead of a reversal.

Other markets also exhibited notable geocosmic reactions last week. Crude Oil soared to 83.24 on Friday, challenging its yearly high of 83.52 on April 12 Just 5 weeks ago, it was trading around 67.00. It was reported that the U.S. has not replenished its Strategic Petroleum Reserves as announced it would earlier in the year if and when Crude Oil dropped to $62-67. Apparently it wasn't done. The reserves remain at or near their lowest levels in many years, down to 346.756 million barrels as of the end of July, well off its recent high of 650+ million barrels in 2020, according to www.ycharts.com.

Gold and Silver fell to new major cycle lows in Friday's pre-market trade as heliocentric Mercury started its trek through Sagittarius. This planet-sign combination has an approximate 75% correlation to rising Gold prices for a few days. Silver is following the same path as Gold, having now dropped about 50% of its recent rally to the major cycle high of 25.47 on July 20 as Venus was about to turn retrograde. Copper has also declined from its recent cycle crest on July 19. Soybeans also fell sharply from its recent high on July 24, right after Venus turned retrograde. Bitcoin and Ethereum may have made trading cycle lows last Tuesday, August 1.

In summary, Venus retrograde on July 22 followed by the Mars/Jupiter trine and full moon on August 1, approaching its square with Jupiter on August 7, are coinciding closely to cycle turns of importance.

Short-Term Geocosmics :

Donald Trump is now criminally charged for actions taken before and after Jan. 6, 2021. He is accused of directing a conspiracy to subvert the Constitution with an intent to retain power after losing the 2020 presidential election. For seven years Democrats have scored Republican officeholders for not wanting to talk about Donald Trump. Why do they concede nothing about Hunter, not even admitting the perceptions are bad ? Why aren't they honestly troubled? Mainstream media has work to do. This is a story. Let the chips fall where they may. - Peggy Noonan, "Trump's Jan. 6 Trial : We Owe It to History : Meanwhile, Hunter Biden's Legal Problems Become Newly Substantial to Voters in the American Middle", Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2023.

The movements in the cosmos are very complex right now. Venus retrograde is doing what Venus is known to do : deciding to be indecisive, forever seeing pros and cons to all things. It doesn't help that Jupiter is part of the issue today, moving from a favorable waxing trine aspect with Mars last Tuesday, August 1, to a challenging square aspect with the Sun on Monday, August 7. Both aspects have a high correlation to sharp price moves and sudden reversals within 4 trading days, which is happening from the cycle high in stocks on Monday, August 1 as we now approach Monday, August 7.

Next up will be the unpredictable Venus/Uranus square, the second of three of these passages between early July and September. The first pass on July 3 correlated with a new yearly high in equities followed by a somewhat sharp one-week decline, and then it was off to the races and new highs.

Uranus in aspect to any planet is unpredictable because it can either be a reversal within 4 trading days, or a breakout if trading near primary cycle lows or highs. The second passage in a 3-passage series is usually the most pronounced and correlates with the most dramatic moves of the three passes. Will it be a reversal or a breakout ? On top of that, Venus retrograde will reach its midpoint as it conjoins the Sun next weekend, often another period indicative of market reversals +/- 2 days.

You might think Uranus will take a break after that, but it doesn't. August 2023 is the month for Uranus upheavals, whether in financial markets, personal relationships, broken agreements, or natural earthbound upheavals (like earthquakes, hurricanes, and tornadoes). Yes, it can also correspond to new announcements regarding innovations in artificial intelligence, or new discoveries in other branches of science or outer space. But it can also indicate revelations and/or acts of terrorism when and where no one expects it. On August 16, the Sun will make its opening square to Uranus, the same date that Mars will make a trine with the planet of disruption. On August 28, Uranus turns stationary retrograde, one the very strongest reversals uncovered in our published research studies.

This new month is not likely to be serene and quiet. Financial markets are more likely to continue to reflect the turbulence suggested of Uranus active in the cosmos. This is likely to be a month of greats risks, but if one's timing is good, these risks can be very profitable. If not, losses can mount. Better to have both a plan and a backup plan in case things don't go as expected. And be ready to support your local chiropractor. Whipsaws are second nature when Uranus looms large.

And - oh yes - Uranus rules astrology, so one thing that might be expected is media attention to those who understand the relationship between cycles in the cosmos and cycles in human activity. Who else can adequately explain the insanity and drama of today's polarized political landscape, of the problems besetting the two front runners of the U.S. 2024 presidential election? Instead of truth, we seem to chase unfounded conspiracies. Instead of love, we seem to choose combat. Instead of silence and inner peace, we seem more attracted to loudness and protest. Instead of trust, we give greater attention to the untrustworthy.

Despite the correlation of Uranus to such disturbances, it also seeks the pursuit of truth, even in the midst of controversy. The pursuit of truth often involves working through the challenges of controversy. August is likely to present an abundance of such challenges for many, including the two frontrunners for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. It's already starting. Brace yourself. The arguments for and against impeachment and imprisonment could become hot topics in the media this month.

Longer-Term thoughts :

T.

To be continued (next week).

Announcements :

             Note 1 : The "Annual MMA Forecast 2024 Pre-Publication Sale" will begin for subscribers of MMA Cycles Reports on Tuesday, August 8! Keep an eye on your inbox THIS WEEKEND for the annual sale announcement.
You won't be able order before then, as the start of the sale on August 8 is astrologically-time.

The sale will include MMA's once-a-year sales on both the annual  Forecast Book , both the print edition and eBook, as well as  MMA Subscription Reports where prices are reduced as much as $300+ for some yearly subscription services.

Want to see how our Forecasts for 2023 turned out? We have our most recent Scorecard available :   https://www.mmacycles.com/articles/forecast-2023-scorecard-as-of-august-1-2023/.

             Note 2 : August 26, 2023 - October 7, 2023 : "Solar/Lunar Correlations For Short-Term Trading". This course will begin in 3 weeks, with a break for Labor Day weekend (Sept 2), then resume Sept 9-October 7. This is a six-week course on how to determine, measure, and use solar-lunar combinations in financial markets for optimal short-trading (even day trading). This six-week course is based on studies of Ray Merriman as presented in Volume 4 of The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing ; The Sun, The Moon and Silver Market : Secrets of a Silver Trader ; and Solar/Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading in Gold.
The course explains the studies identifying Sun-Moon combinations that have the highest correlation to isolated highs or lows in stock indices, Gold, and Silver from which tradeable reversals are likely over the following 1-4 trading days. The set up that activates the trade in these time bands is shared, and supporting market signals that will help in determining the price target with the "lowest risk to optimal reward" possibilities via these studies. In addition, we will also share our latest results on the lunar cycles correlating with sharp, short-term reversals in Bitcoin and the Euro , and if ready, Crude Oil studies. This six-week course will be part of the MMTA (Merriman Market Timing Academy), Course 4. Those who complete this class will receive credit for that course. The cost is $2500, which includes six zoom classes of about 2.5 hours each, plus recordings of each class and a workbook. Classes will take place each Saturday, beginning at noon EDT, from August 26 through October 14, with the exception of September 2, which will be a break due to the Labor Day holiday in the U.S. Instructors will be Raymond Merriman (CTA) and Gianni Di Poce (CTA), with one or two special guests to be announced soon. Registration is limited, so sign up now by clicking here .

             Note 3 : Forecast 2024 is completed in both the print and ebook (English) versions. If you live in the U.S. you should have received it by now. If you live overseas, the actual delivery depends on your postal service.

The price for the printed edition of Forecast 2024 is $66 as long as supplies last. We are down to the last 1-1/2 boxes. Last year's book sold out, so order now before they are gone. There will be no additional printings. The price for the eBook edition will remain $55, and will continue to be available even if the printed edition sells out.

For a review of the Forecast 2022 Book so far, please visit our  Scorecard. It is impressive!.

Offer to consider : With printers dealing with supply problems in getting paper, we cannot guarantee the printed edition of this year's book will be completed on time for delivery by December 25. The book will be written and turned in on time, as usual, and the eBook will be ready on or around December 15. Purchasers of the printed edition may wish to also order the eBook this year to make sure they at least get the text in time. Therefore, we also offer a "bundle" purchasing plan where those who order the printed edition can also order the eBook for only $20.00. That way, you will be assured of receiving the text for reading over the holidays in case the printed edition of the book is not able for delivery prior to December 15 as planned.

We will again publish an individual book dedicated to the yearly trends for the twelve individual signs. The book, Trends for the Twelve Signs 2023, will be written by Antonia Langsdorf-Merriman and Raymond Merriman. Antonia has written an annual Sun Sign book in German for the past several years, based on interviews conducted with Raymond beforehand. Click here to order from Amazon.
We will follow a format this year where Langsdorf will cover the health and relationships outlook and Merriman will cover the business, career, and overall psychological outlook of each sign for the year. The cost of this book will be $25, with a further discount if ordered together with the Forecast 2024 Book.

We offer discounts to our Forecast Fan Club Members and our Active Subscriber Club members. Check out our page on Forecast Club Levels to learn more about these discounts.

This year's printed and eBook versions will also be available in these languages:

German: www.mma-europe.ch or email at info@mma-europe.ch

Japanese: https://www.toushinippou.co.jp

Chinese Chinese :www.nodoor.com            

             Note 4 : The monthly MMA ETF Report was released last week.
Many have asked about a monthly report on Bitcoin, and the Monthly ETF Report does this via BITO, the ETF on Bitcoin. Written by MMA market analyst Gianni Di Poce, the ETF is a monthly newsletter that everyone trading ETFs is encouraged to read, especially those that seek less risky trading venues than futures. This report covers 8 ETFs on a monthly basis for readers. The ETFs include: SPY (S&P 500), GDX (gold miners), BITO (Bitcoin), TLT (+20-year Treasuries), USO (Crude Oil), XLV (healthcare), XLK (technology), and XHB (homebuilders). This is a report that was requested by popular demand and Gianni's insights and strategies are excellent. For further information, click here.

             Note 5 : THE APRIL ISSUE OF THE  MMA Monthly Cycles Report Plus+, edited by Pouyan Zolfagharnia, was issued last week. This market letter has become a very popular addition to the MMA Cycles Report (less technical, more visual, high-quality analysis and update on MMA Cycles Report markets). The mid-month addendum to the MMA Cycles report has stunning AI graphics and charts (people love it!) and is very readable. It contains more illustrations and references to geocosmics than most MMA Cycles reports and is only available for subscription to those who also subscribe to the MMA Monthly Cycles Report. If you wish to try this month's addendum, along with the latest issue of the MMA Monthly Cycles Report, sign up online at the link above. The cost for a monthly copy of both reports is $55. That will give you both the most recent copy of the MMA Cycles Report and the MMA Cycles Report addendum coming out this week. For further information and ordering instructions, please click here.

             Note 6 : Now you can listen to a podcast or broadcast of this weekly column by Thomas Miller. The Free Weekly Forecast Podcast is now available on Saturday.
Just follow Merriman Market Analyst on Spotify to listen to all our episodes. New episodes will be released every weekend. This is a FREE service and available to everyone. Checkout out our Podcasts on Apple, Spotify, MMA- Merriman Market Analyst Podcast  and on YouTube, Merriman Market Analyst. It makes for great listening!

             Note 7 : SUBSCRIBE TO MMA'S WEEKLY YouTube show, Geocosmic Week in Review and Look Ahead. Each 5-15 minute FREE episode reviews market activity of the past week and offer a preview of the geocosmic signatures in effect for the next week and beyond. You may subscribe to MMA's YouTube Channel today at no cost and get alerted when a new weekly episode is released! To view this week's MMA YouTube episode, click here.

             Note 8 : The MMA Grain Cycles report by MMTA Graduate Wyatt Fellows was issued last week. This is an exceptional report by a top MMTA graduate who is also the owner of a large family farm operation. Wyatt knows the farming business and grain markets from both a cyclical and fundamental point of view. This report is an in-depth look at long-and short-term cycles in Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Cotton. The MMA Cycles Grain Report has been extremely accurate in its first editions that began in January. If you trade grains or are in the farming business and wish for accurate timing and understanding of when to hedge your crop, this report is not to be missed! To order, click here.

             Our monthly MMA Cycles : The monthly edition of the MMA Montly Cycles Report (ICR) and its companion MMA Japanese Cycles and MMA European Cycles reports was released last week. If you are subscriber to any these monthly reports and did not receive it, let us know at once via our email.

- This report covers our long term analysis of the stock market (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, T-Notes, Euro and Swiss Franc currencies, grains and crude oil. It also provides the list of geocosmic and solar-lunar reversal zones for the 1-2 months. This report comes out Monday night to subscribers.
- The MMA Japanese Markets Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen.
- The new MMA Europe Cycles report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX stock indices, each in english only and will be available on Wednesday.
One month trial subscriptions are available for this service for $35.00, which includes the current issue.
For subscription information, please go to our web site, or call us at 1-248-626-3034. If you are not a subscriber, you can check this service out on a one month trial basis for only $35.00.. For an additional $20, you can also receive the next issue, due in two weeks, of the MMA Monthly Cycles Report Plus+ edited by Pouyan Zolfagharnia, which has become a very popular addition to the MMA Cycles Report (less technical, more visual, high-quality analysis and update on MMA Cycles Report markets).

We are also pleased to report that starting with this month's issue of the MMA Cycles Report on November 8-9, we have added the Copper market , written by MMTA graduate and portfolio manager Matthieu Kaiser of Paris, France. We are very excited about this addition, as Matthieu has conducted exceptional research studies identifying long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term cycles in the Copper market. Many consider the Copper market to be a leading indicator of the world economy and stock markets. Stay tuned for the first edition of this new market !

             MMA's annual Forecast Book : see above

Upcoming Events :

             August 10, 2023: MMA Mid-Year Update on Chinese markets, 7 PM, Beijing Time, 1:00 PM CEDT. This 3-hour zoom presentation will be presented by Raymond Merriman in English, with translation into Chinese by the staff of NoDoor School. Markets to be covered include: Shanghai Stock Composite (SSE), Renminbi (RMD - Dollar/Yuan), Crude Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin, plus Q&A. For further information and enrollment, please click here (and use google translation into English).

             August 26, 2023 - October 7, 2023 : "Solar/Lunar Correlations For Short-Term Trading". Please note the change from last week's incorrect dates. For details see announcement above. Registration is limited, so sign up now by clicking here.
"Solar/Lunar Correlations For Short-Term Trading". A six-week course on how to determine, measure, and use solar-lunar combinations in financial markets for optimal short-trading (even day trading). This is a six-week course, based on studies of Ray Merriman as presented in Volume 4 of The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing ; The Sun, The Moon and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader ; and Solar/Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading in Gold . The course will go over the studies identifying Sun-Moon combinations that have the highest correlation to isolated highs or lows in stock indices, Gold, and Silver from which tradeable reversals are likely over the following 1-4 trading days. We will describe the set up that activates the trade in these time bands, and supporting market signals to help with determining the price target with the lowest risk to optimal reward possibilities via these studies. In addition, we will also share our latest results on the lunar cycles correlating with sharp, short-term reversals in Bitcoin and the Euro , and if ready, Crude Oil studies. This six-week course will be part of the MMTA (Merriman Market Timing Academy), Course 4. Those who complete this class will receive credit for that course. The cost is $2500, which includes six zoom classes of about 2-1/2 -hours each, plus recordings of each class and a workbook. Classes will take place each Saturday, beginning at noon EDT, from September 9 through October 14. Instructors will be Raymond Merriman (CTA) and Gianni Di Poce (CTA), with one or two special guests to be announced soon. Registration is limited, so sign up now by clicking here.

             I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 545-5837. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as to exactly when to enter and exit any market. They will be more than happy to assist you.

             To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded theBest in-house fund of funds in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, please contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.

             It is with great pleasure that I announce the addition of Egon von Greyerz to MMA Investment Retreat faculty of presenters. I met Egon last week in Girona, Spain, at a special gathering attended by MMTA Graduates Nitin Bhandari (India), Philipp Beyer (Germany), Henry Canciglia (USA) and myself. Egon is an expert on Gold. He owns Matterhorn Asset Management, a Swiss Asset Management company specializing in wealth preservation, located in Zurich ( www.goldswitzerland.com). He was also the person who initiated the "..Save Our Swiss G"...Act in Switzerland late last year, which would have required the Swiss National Bank to back up their assets with 20% Gold holdings. The initiative failed, but his reasons for initiating this effort are still valid. Egon is very interested in MMA cycles' work, and will share his outlook on Gold and the world debt. This is a real treat!

             The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifiesBig Range Days - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders : high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is thatextra edge. And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

             The new book titled Solar-Lunar Keys to Gold Prices : Secrets of a Gold Trader, is now out. The long awaited sequel to the Secrets of a Silver Trader is due out in late October (maybe before)!!!
Now, GOLD as you have never seen it by night or day. The studies for the soon-to-be-released book are now completed and the results are now being used in the weekly and daily MMA subscription reports for short-term trading strategies in Gold. That's right... historically tested Solar-Lunar Correlations to trading reversals in the Gold Market - as only available from Raymond Merriman. The studies cover over 40 years of daily Gold, starting from December 31, 1974 through April 2015. The book will change how you approach trading Gold using these leading solar-lunar indicators, with very clear instructions as to "when" to expect 3%, 4%, or greater reversals in Gold prices and how to trade them. It will be a valuable guide for short-term traders of Gold, GLD, and other ETF's involving Gold prices. You may call 1-248-626-3034 or email ordersmma@gmail.com and place your pre-order now. It is also now available for purchase on the MMA web site at www.mmacycles.com. Order now and get the first printing of this new book on trading Gold!

Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.


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