weekly trading comments

COMMENTS AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WEEK OF 10/17/2005

Comments : Please take a moment to view my weekly geocosmic comments on the stock market, at http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm. Or, you can go to www.mmacycles.com, and then choose Weekly Preview. You can also go to www.stariq.com, and then look up "market week."

DJIA Cash: Last week's range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 2^nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral. A close down this week will downgrade it to trend run down. Weekly support is 10,188-10,204. A close below 10,188 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 10,354-10,371. A close above 10,371 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bullish crossover zone remains at 10,291-10,294 was broke, and a bearish crossover zone formed the prior week at 10,487-10,489 remains in effect. Price need to close back above here to indicate the primary and 50-week cycle lows are in.

This now begins either the 15^th week of 13-21 week primary cycle, or the 26^th week of an even older one. As stated last week, "If the later, it is possible we could get a 50-week and primary cycle trough as early as the full moon, which takes place on October 17 +/- 1 trading day. We have two huge geocosmic clusters coming up too, and the final bottom could unfold within either one of these too, which are October 14-November 7 (critical reversal Oct 26 +/- 3 trading days) and November 14-December 10 (CR is Nov 27)." Well, it is possible that the low came in on Thursday, two days before the full moon, as DJIA fell to 10,156.50. However, there was no intermarket bullish divergence to the SPZ or NDZ, so I doubt that was it. At 50-week lows, I like to see divergence, where one market makes a new low, in a critical reversal zone in a time band for a cycle low, but it unaccompanied by new lows in related markets.

Traders can remain short against a close above the bearish crossover zone. If we see a pullback to test or make new lows by Wednesday, one can take some profits. Otherwise I would look for the low to occur around October 26 (say October 23-November 7), or November 27 critical reversal periods, with signs of intermarket bullish divergence.

SPZ (Dec S&P): Last week's low was below weekly support, and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 4^th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 1208.75 will upgrade it to neutral. Weekly support is 1174.10-1175.15. A close below 1174.10 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1203.40-1204.45. A close above 1204.45 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 1175.20-1176.70 on a closing basis. Prices went a little lower last week, but closed back above, so it is still valid.

This still looks like it is beginning the 7^th week of a newer 13-23 week primary cycle, but there are other interpretations possible, as discussed last week (and in DJIA). If it is the 7^th week, then prices are already well below the low that started the4 cycle 7 weeks ago, which means prices will continue to trend lower until the cycle is completed. There is huge resistance at the breakdown of the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern and a gap down around 1220-1230. I don't expect any rallies to get above here, and if they do, then it tells me the 50-week cycle trough is completed, and a new 50-week cycle is in forc

But short-term, a 5-7 week cycle trough is due, and may have even formed on Thursday at 1172. If so, then a 3-8 day rally is in progress to the crest of the second major cycle. I would sell that rally. Look for resistance in the weekly resistance zone, or even slightly higher, to say 1208-1212.

NDZ (Dec NASDAQ 100): Last week's low was into weekly support, which held, and the close was back between support-resistance, which is neutral, but with a bullish bias. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 2^nd consecutive week, so it remains neutral. A close down this week will downgrade it to trend run down. Weekly support is 1525-1527. A close below 1525 is bearish. A trade below and a close back above is bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1572-1574. A close above 1574 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

As with SPZ, I think this starts the 7^th week of a 15-23 week primary cycle. A 5-8 week major cycle trough is thus due, and with Venus square Uranus now, it could have happened on Thursday's low at 1523, just ahead of Monday's lunar eclipse (full moon eclipse). If so, a 3-8 day rally could be in force now. I would not expect this rally to exceed 1630, and if it does, it may mean last week's low was a 25-week primary cycle (expansion). Traders are advised to sell all rallies, especially that stall or fall short of 1572-1580, or 1600-1630.

EUC (Euro Cash): Last week's low was below weekly support, and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1^st time in 5 weeks, which means it is upgraded it to neutral. Weekly support is 1.1952-1.1971. A close below 1.1952 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.2194-1.2213. A weekly close above 1.2213 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Two bearish crossover zones are present at 1.3153-1.3222 and 1.3342-1.3467. The market is bearish until these break.

This starts the 15^th week of the 22-33 week primary cycle. Last Thursday's low of 1.1912 was a re-test of the 1.1900 low of October 3 (solar eclipse and Mars Rx), which itself was a re-test of the 1.1868 low of 15 weeks ago that started this primary cycle. This fits with our forecast that the October 3 low was at least a 9-14 week major cycle trough, and possibly even a longer-term cycle low... like the primary, 26-month and 4-year cycle type. If it was just a major cycle low, then this rally would only last 1-3 weeks, and this would be the second week now. A corrective rally would find resistance around 1.2405 +/- .0060. Any close above this range would make me think more bullish, like that this is the start of a new longer-term cycle. It's possible, for as stated previously, "A 9-14 week major cycle trough may be forming within 5 trading days of the forthcoming Mars Rx on October 1. In several cases of the past, this signature has coincided with yearly highs or lows, and now that we seem to be about to challenge the July lows again (1.1868), we could be seeing either a major cycle trough, or perhaps even the 26-month and 4-year cycle troughs, form shortly. Yes, this would create a bizarre primary cycle pattern if this is to be the yearly low (or re-test of it) in the next few days, but Mars Rx can do that. For this reason, I think aggressive traders may look for a bottom to form in the next two weeks... If it is to be only a major cycle trough, then the rally that follows will not last more than 1-3 weeks, and most likely not exceed 1.2400-1.2600. After that, I would expect the Euro to continue to fall to 1.0900-1.1200. But if it is the 26-month and 4-year cycle trough that forms now, the rally would be explosive, and last several weeks, even months, taking the Euro to new all-time highs, maybe even by mid-December." And then last week's report stated, "Well, we did form a new low for this cycle on Monday at 1.1900, and it is a re-test of the low that formed 13 weeks ago at 1.1868. As of right now, it is a double bottom formation and could be the long-term cycle trough. It will take about three more weeks to confirm that. But in meantime, I prefer to think of it as a major cycle trough, and the rally will now last 1-3 weeks, and not take out the 1.2400-1.2600 level. However, I am concerned, because after all, this double bottom did unfold with Mars Rx, which means it has the possibility of being the long-term cycle low, and prices could be sharply up by Mars Direct on Dec 10. So, for now, one can be long against a close below last Monday's low. But I would look to take some profits as we approach 1.2350 and higher."

This Monday's full moon may be important. It could coincide with a pull back right here. But the Euro has now closed well the past two weeks, so9 I am more inclined to think it will continue higher, closer to our October26 critical reversal date, +/- 3 trading days (and maybe even into November 4, which has important Level 1 signatures present. In fact, October 27-November 7 is a very powerful cluster of geocosmic signatures that have relevance to all currencies. Remain long unless 1.1900 is broke, and look to cover some positions if we rally to 1.2350- 1.2500 and stall, especially the following week.

EUZ (Dec Euro): The futures is essentially the same cycle labeling as the cash, so all we will give here are technical points of support and resistance. Last week's low was below weekly support, and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1^st time in 5 weeks, which means it is upgraded it to neutral. Wkly support is 1.2008-1.2035. A weekly close below 1.2008 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 1.2205-1.2231. A close above 1.2231 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 1.2198-1.2233 and 1.2364-1.2398.

JYC (Dollar/Yen Cash): Last week's high was above weekly resistance, and the close was back below, which is a bearish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 5^th consecutive week, so it remains in a trend run up. A close below 1.13671 will downgrade it back to neutral. Weekly support is 1.1316-1.1329. A close below 1.1316 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.1470-1.1483. A weekly close above 1.1483 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 1.0547-1.0606 and 1.1284-1.1287.

This begins the 6^th week of a new 26-40 week primary cycle. As stated last week, "I still think the Dollar could climb to 1.1500-1.2000.... If long the Dollar, maybe you should take some profits, and keep a stop-loss either slightly below the new bullish crossover zone (1.1284), or below 1.1099, depending on risk allowance." We got to 1.1509 on Thursday, and then sold off to close at 1.1393 on a bearish trigger. Still, the Dollar has not closed below the 13-day moving average, currently about 1.1381, which is necessary to confirm a major cycle crest, and a decline into the 9-14 week major cycle trough. I think it could happen, and if so, I would look for the higher bullish crossover zone to be tested or even taken out... but not the lower one. For now, I prefer to be out of the Dollar until we reach the time frame for the major cycle trough, which might be 3-8 weeks away. However, it is possible that the low of 6 weeks ago (a double bottom) is not the correct starting point for this primary cycle. It may have begun at the first low, which was 10 weeks ago. If that were the case, then the major cycle trough would be due anytime in the next 4 weeks. The overlap would be in 3-4 weeks, and should alert us as to a higher probability time frame for a low. Like the Euro, I would focus mostly on the period of October 26-November 7, which has important geocosmic signatures of a trend reversal for all currencies.

JYZ (Dec Yen): Last week's low was below weekly support, and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 5^th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 8862 will upgrade it back to neutral. Wkly support is 8774-8788. A close below 8774 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 8873-8886. A close above 8886 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 9142-9148.

This begins the 13^th week of the 22-33 week primary cycle. Last week's low was 8749, which is lower than the start of the cycle, thus implying that the primary cycle trend is down - there will be lower prices (the lowest price) at the end of this cycle. Nevertheless, this is also a time band for a 9-14 week major cycle trough, and if it formed last Thursday, then we could see a 1-3 week rally now. We note that last Thursday's low was not conformed with a new low in the Euro, and it is close to a lunar eclipse and Venus-Uranus signature (right now), so it could be the major cycle trough. If so, look for a corrective rally back to 9016 +/- 63. However, there is a big gap down area around 8940-8970, and that gap may be hard to fill. So I would look to sell short if prices stall around there on a rally now, especially if it happens between October 26-November 7.

Euro/Yen Spread-Cash: Last week's range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 3^rd consecutive week, but it was a slightly down week, which means it remains in neutral. A close up this week will upgrade it to trend run up. Weekly support is 1.3705-1.3713. A close below 1.3705 is bearish. A trade below and a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.3839-1.3847. A close above 1.3847 is bullish. A trade above and a close back below is a bearish trigger.

This begins the 19^th week of a 17-25 week primary cycle and the 8^th week of the second 8-12 week half primary cycle phase (usually 9-11 weeks). Prices made another new high for this second half primary cycle, hitting 1.3827 last week. The high of the first half-cycle was 1.3889, so it remains to be seen if it will take that out or not. If it does, then we have a bullish right translation primary cycle. Still, it is very late in the primary cycle as well as the second half-primary cycle phase, so the risk in being long is great. Once this half-primary top is in, the steepest decline of the primary cycle is due to commence. I think this market is trying to put in top here, and may have done so last week. Our price target was - is - 1.3800-1.400, and we did achieve that with last week's high. If not, we could have a quick explosion up to a new high in the next two weeks (say October 26-November 5), then an equally impressive decline to follow. Traders are advised to be cautious form the long side, and preparing to short this spread (i.e. buy the Yen, sell the Euro).

SFZ (Dec Swiss Franc): Last week's low was below weekly support, and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1^st time in 5 weeks, which means it is upgraded it to neutral. Wkly support is 7755-7770. A close below 7755 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 7902-7916. A close above 7916 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 7875-7894 and 8008-8067.

This starts the 13^th week of the 22-33 week primary cycle. A 9-14 week major cycle trough is due, and probably happened October 3, the 11^th week, and both the solar eclipse and Mars Rx period. We note that that low was below the low that started the primary cycle back in July, but it was not matched with a new low in the Euro. Since that was a critical reversal period (October 1) and exhibited intermarket bullish divergence to the Euro, it may have been a double bottom pattern, thus completing the longer-term 26-month and 4-year cycle troughs. It will take a couple weeks to confirm that. The key will be how long this rally will last, and how high it will go? If it is just a corrective rally, then it should not last more than 1-3 weeks (this is already the 2^nd week), and the price target would be 7966 +/- 59. There is a major gap down area at 8050-8090, so any close above 8100 would support this being the start of whole new longer-term cycle (bullish for several months, even years). For now I prefer the long side against a close under 7718. But be prepared to cover (and even sell short again) as we enter the corrective price target zone for a rally, especially if nit happens October 26-November 7.

TYZ (Dec 10-Year Notes): Last week's close was below weekly support, which is a bearish. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 5^th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 109/27 will upgrade it to neutral. Wkly support is 108/13-108/17. A close below 108/13 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 109/14-109/18. A close above 109/18 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 111/06-111/07.

This starts the 10^th week of the 15-23 week primary cycle. An 8-12 week half-primary cycle trough is thus due at anytime. Please note that prices are now well below the start of this primary cycle, so the trend is down. That means that once this half-primary bottom is completed, there will be only a corrective 1-3 week rally, probably not to exceed the bearish crossover zone, and the followed by even lower prices into the end of this primary cycle. Therefore traders are advised to sell all rallies. I think the market will even bearish the next primary cycle too, for the 25-month cycle trough is not due until next summer.

SX (Nov Soybeans): Switch to March contract next week. Last week's close was above weekly resistance, which is bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1^st time in 12 week, which means it is upgraded to neutral. A close below 572-1/2 will downgrade it back to trend run down. Wkly support is 564-569. A close below 564 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 605-610. A close above 610 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 580-609.

I think last Monday's low at 554 (a double bottom to the 556 low of Sept 27) was a 22-week primary cycle trough. If correct, then this is the 1^st week of a new 15-021 week primary cycle. This is harvest season, and harvest is going well, so I expect all rallies will be limited until the end of the year. Still, this is a new primary cycle, and we have a couple of corrective price targets. The first is 603 +/- 6, which is nearly met with the big rally at the end of last week (595-1/2). And we are now at a full moon (lunar eclipse), so this target could be met early this week. An dif this a normal correction of the entire primary swing down, then the market could bounce back to as high as 665 +/- 26. But there is a huge gap around d 640, so I doubt that will be filled, A 23.6% corrective rally of the prior downswing gives an upside target of 606 are, so I am incliined to look for 600-620, but not above 640 on this rally. Eventually, I think prices could fall to 500, but that may not be until later next year now, for the seasonal cycle will turn bullish January-May. For now, traders are advised to sell short 600-620, and look for prices to trend between 560-620 the rest of this year.

WZ (Dec Wheat): Last week's high was above weekly resistance, and the close was back below, which is a bearish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 4^th consecutive week, which means it is in a trend run up. A close below 342 will downgrade it back to neutral. Wkly support is 332-333. A close below 332 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 346-348. A close above 347-1/2 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

This begins the 7^th week of the 15-21 week primary cycle. A 5-7 week major cycle trough is due, with a price target of 335 +/- 5, which we are at. And the geocosmic signature of Friday, October 14, is an important one for Wheat, so traders can look to buy this low now, assuming it doesn't close below 330 or 325, depending on your risk allowance. The next rally, however, may or may not take out the high of the first major cycle crest at 353. Look for it to test 350, however, unless we do close under 330 first.

GCZ (Dec Gold): Last week's low was below weekly support and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 10^th time in 11 weeks, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 472.50 will downgrade it back to neutral. Wkly support is 464.90-466. A close below 464.90 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 478.70-479.90. A close above 479.90 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 455.50-455.70.

This begins the 20^th week of an older 15-21 week primary cycle, or the 7^th week of a newer one. I still favor the later. If so, then we should still be seeing a 5-7 week major cycle trough forming this week, possibly between 455-465. If it doesn't, then we will look for an 8-11 week half-primary cycle trough. The market continued to make new 18-year highs last week, reaching 482.20 on Wednesday, which was already 8 trading days past Mars turning retrograde. This makes it unclear as to when this market will top out. Technically it is already overbought and looking exhausted, so it could turn any day now, if it hasn't already. But it would also continue to make new highs yet into the period surrounding Mars direct, on December 10. By that time, we could be at our original target of 490-520. I have no strong recommendation at this time. If the market should drop 50-100 points into Mars direct, I would buy. But other than that, maybe a drop to the bullish crossover zone, and finding support there, might present at least a short-term buying opportunity too. We might watch our October 26 critical reversal zone too, +/- 3 trading days to see if a new three-week high or low is forming, as a signal for a reversal.

SIZ (Dec Silver): Last week's high was into weekly resistance, which held, and the close was back between support and resistance, which is neutral but with a bearish bias. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for 7^th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 763.50 will downgrade it back to neutral. Wkly support is 768-771. A close below 768 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 799-802. A close above 802 is bullish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 679-691.

This now starts the 7^th week of a new 13-21 week primary cycle, as well as the 7th week of the first 7-11 week half-primary cycle. Last Tuesday, prices touched 795 for a new high for this cycle. That is right in the middle of our first price target zone of 780-820. Silver then sold off to touch the gap up area of 764 on Friday, but then they rallied strong to close at 786. As stated last week, "But prices rallied sharply late last week, and on Friday, gapped up above 764, giving a measuring gap target of 858 +/- 22. This will be negated if 764 is filled. Could it be a fake-out? Sure, because Mars is Rx, and it acts like Mercury Rx. Lots of fake outs or unrealized targets or patterns are likely the next ten weeks. If long, I would be very cautious. If looking to sell short, you still need to be cautious. This will not be an easy time to trade for the next ten weeks, so best to be very short-term oriented."

As we look at technicals, we note that the b795 high was within 7 trading days of the CCI hitting above +200. One of our favorite signals is a top that forms within 7 trading days after CCI hits +200. But Mars is Rx, and technicals can be fake outs, so we have to consider two other possibilities. One, we could make a new high, without Gold making a new high, for a case of Intermarket bearish divergence. At the same time, a new high in SIZ could be with a lower level of CCI, which would also be a case of bearish oscillator divergence, as we enter this huge critical reversal zone (October 14-November 7). I still think Silver will fall 50-100, and ideally that decline has started or will start very soon (by Nov 7). I would look for such a set up even this Monday, which is the lunar eclipse in Aries. If Monday shows Silver slightly above 795, and Gold well below its 482.20 high of last week, I would sell short. But I want to see a weak close, either that same day or the day.

MMA comments and trade recommendations are primarily for traders of commodity and futures contracts. They are provided mainly with "speculators" in mind. By its very nature, "speculation" means "willing to take risk of loss." Speculators" must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say "investors". That is why they are "speculators." Speculators are typically right about 50% of the time, +/- 10%. The way "speculators" become profitable is not so much by high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. MMA's comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. MMA's trade recommendations will be of potential value only to speculators. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day's trading. There is no guarantee as to future accuracy or profitability. Each trader and reader trades at his or her own risk, and neither the author nor publisher assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone's financial or commodity markets decisions. Futures or options trading are considered high risk.