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The best market timing for Silver

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
MAY 7 - 2007

Raymond A. Merriman©

Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

The Market Week in Review :

             The magnet of the forthcoming Jupiter-Uranus square of May 10-11 continues. After making a slight corrective decline into early last week, as Mars "translated" the Jupiter-Uranus square, prices quickly resumed their uptrend, with many indices posting new all-time (or multi-year) highs by the end of the week.

             In Europe, the Netherlands AEX and London FTSE marched to their highest levels since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center. The German DAX raced to its highest level since April 2000, and now very close to its all-time high of 8136 posted just one month prior to that, in March 2000. But the Swiss stock index failed to make a new high last week, falling a little short of the 9515 all-time high of April 26.

             In the Pacific Rim, the Australian All Ordinaries continued its amazing ascent to yet another new all-time high, hitting 6296 on Friday. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong also rallied smartly, reaching 20,883 last week, just slightly under its all-time high of 20,971 posted on January 24, 2007. But in Japan, the Nikkei was far from spectacular, closing around 17,395, considerably down from its yearly high of 18,300 recorded back on February 26, and not even close to its all-time high of over 39,000 back in late 1989.

             In the Americas, the Dow Jones again soared to a new all-time high on Friday, reaching 13,284. The NASDAQ Composite rallied to 2577, its highest level since February 2001. In South America, Brazil's Bovespa finally crossed the 50,000 threshold for the first tome, hitting 50,318 on Friday. But in Argentina, the Merval Index actually fell most of the week. So in every region we witnessed many indices with impressive advances to new multi-year highs, but we also saw at least one index in each region that was far from their recent highs, for a continuation of the intermarket bearish divergence, still a warning that all may not be as wonderful as the headlines blare. Not everybody everywhere is realizing the benefits of stock market gains.

             In precious metals, both Gold, and Silver fell to the lowest levels in about a month as of Wednesday. But then they suddenly reversed and commenced strong rallies into the end of the week, especially in Gold. Crude Oil did the opposite, a sit fell it 61.56 on Friday, down over 5.00/barrel form the 66.79 highs of one week ago, April 27. But don't expect to see that decline reflected in prices at the gas pump, as the summer driving season ramps up. In other markets, Corn appears to have completed its recent corrective decline, as prices are once again challenge the $4.00/bushel mark in the July contract. As stated before, I wouldn't be surprised to see Crude Oil and Corn both make new all-time highs in the next year, as Saturn approaches its opposition Uranus. The problem is not going to be deflation, but inflation, if the FED continues to flood the market with more and more money, as they appear to be doing ever since they decided to no longer report the M3 money supply figures. Gold at $4000.00 and the DJIA at 50,000 sound like far-out and crazy projections today. But in terms of real dollars (inflation adjusted), such levels may still be far below the all-time purchasing value of these commodities and securities, if this pace continues.  But I think we are due for an interruption in this pace very shortly.


Short-Term Geocosmics :

             This is the week we have been waiting for. On May 10 (USA) and 11 (Europe and Asia) the second passage of the Jupiter-Uranus square, due to the retrograde of Jupiter, takes place. As stated last week, "The first passage was January 22, which coincided with the 4-year cycle trough in Crude Oil and the yearly high in Dollar-Yen, and a primary cycle trough in Treasuries, all within one week." And once again we see Crude Oil falling rather sharply, and the Dollar-Yen rising rather sharply, as we enter this week.

             Jupiter pertains to the principle of euphoria, exaggeration, optimism, and also panic and hysteria. Do you think there is some of that collective psychology evident in today's investors and market commentators? How many market commentators did you hear this week that talked about the pressure on portfolio managers and investors being 'forced into buying stocks" this week because they feared (panic) being left out of this market run? Uranus rules the principle of sudden reversals, as well as breakouts beyond support and resistance levels. A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that I thought we could a few days of triple digits gains or losses as we entered this April 19-May 13 time frame , dominated by this Jupiter-Uranus square. So far we have only seen the gains as we approach this powerful signature. Once it ends, could we see triple digit down days? Yes, it is possible, and maybe even record or near record down days, for that is the nature of Jupiter (exaggeration) and Uranus (reversals without warning).

             But it not just Jupiter and Uranus one has to be concerned about this week. In addition, the Sun will now start its translation to the forthcoming Saturn-Neptune opposition. It will form a T-square to "the other" significant geocosmic signature of this year, when it first forms the waning square to Saturn on Wednesday, May 9, and then the waxing square to Neptune on next Saturday, May 12. This Jupiter-Uranus "freight train" of a rally could spill over into this translation period before a sobering reality sets in the following week. Such a rude awakening may be further set off with Mars forming a waxing square to Pluto the day after (May 13). This later is a signature of threats again to human lives, especially through acts of terrorism. However, as we seem to have become immune to the shock of such violent acts over the past couple of years, and have witnessed equity rallies continue in spite of such horrific news, it is possible that the momentum of this rally could spill over even into Neptune turning retrograde (May 24), or the Sun in opposition to Jupiter (June 5). Picking tops that actually turn the market for more than 2-5 days has proved to be quite a challenge over the past several months. But it was that way in late 1986 through much of 1987 too, under another Jupiter-Uranus signature (see below).

Long-Term Thoughts :

             We had a few letters during the past two weeks asking about the status of the 4-year cycle, with some wondering why I haven't referred to this cycle lately. First of all, let me assure you that I do still refer to this cycle. Each of our subscription reports ("MMA Cycles Report" and the "SOS Stock Market Cycles Report") dedicates a good portion of the discussion to the current phasing of this cycle, and what it is suggesting in the near-term. After all, it is the most important of the long-term cycles coming due.

             The 4-year cycle has an orb of one year. That is, in every case since 1893, it has occurred in either the third, fourth, or fifth year. The only time that failed was in the 1932-1938 case. It took six years in that instance - the only instance of the last 28 completed cases to take that long. Thus, since the autumn of 2005, I have kept readers alert to the high probability that this cycle is due, somewhere between 2005 and 2007, given that this 4-year cycle last unfolded on October 10, 2002. The fact that it hasn't occurred yet does not mean the cycle has failed (or, as some would perhaps like to believe, that I have failed). We are still in the fifth year, with several months yet to go, before we can say that this cycle failed in this instance. I know that readers may get impatient, waiting for a cycle to unfold that is due over a 3-year period. But impatience doesn't negate its existence, just because it didn't occur in the beginning or middle of its expected time band. The time band is still in effect, regardless of one's impatience or eagerness to dismiss something before its time is up.

             It is also important to note that the United States was one of the very few countries whose equity markets experienced the 4-year cycle as early as October 10, 2002. Most of the other world markets had their 4-year cycle trough unfold in March or April 2003, coincident with the U.S.-led "regime change" in Iraq. At that time, the DJIA went down sharply and tested its low of October 2002, but it held in a chart pattern known as a "double bottom." But the point is this: in the United States, this is the 5th year of the 4-year cycle (with a range of 3-5 years). But in almost every other country in the world, it is still only the 4th year. If it occurs before the end of this year, it will be right in the middle of the expected time band for all these other countries.

             And finally, to get historical perspective of other 4-year cycles in the U.S. that took 5 years to complete, simply look back to the last instance. That was 20 years ago, from the low of August 1982 through the low of October 1987. Yes, it took 5 years to unfold. And if you can remember back that far, the crest took exactly 5 years to culminate, with the all-time high (at that point) occurring in August 1987 at 2744 in the DJIA. Less than two months later the DJIA lost 40% of its value as prices dropped to test the 1600 level, following the "Black Monday" collapse of 22% (over 500 points) on October 19. The pattern of rising prices and the public sentiment of extreme bullishness were very much like what we see today. So was the fact that that high - like the high of May 2006 - occurred under a Jupiter-Uranus aspect passage. What we are observing today is not that much different than what we went through 20 year ago. This is not a "whole new ballgame," as many of today's bulls (and Wall Street execs) would like everyone to believe. Am I a bear trying to "talk this market down?" Not at all. Nor am I a Wall Street "suit" trying to convince you that this is an entirely new ballgame we are in. I am an analyst sharing with you my understanding of how these cycles - present today - have worked in the past

             The time band for the 4-year cycle is still in effect. The year is not over, nor is the passages of this phase of the 14-year Jupiter-Uranus signature.

Announcements :

            On May 25-27, I will be in Belgrade, Serbia, leading a workshop on "Evolutionary Astrology," the title of a school of thought I developed - and book I wrote from 1971-1977, and republished in 1991.For  more information, please contact keplerskola@ptt.yu .

On June 2, I will be part of an all-day seminar in Amsterdam, where I will present my findings related to short-term trading of the Silver market, as written in "The Sun, Moon, and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader." For info, call 31-294-417892, or go to www.markettiming.nl , or email info@markettiming.nl .

            I am in discussion with the Adams Mark Hotel in Denver about hosting the next full MMA Market Timing workshop the weekend of July 13-15. Hold those dates on your calendar if you are interested in learning this form of market timing and analysis. Denver is "Rocky Mountain high-beautiful." Prior to that, I will be conducting a one-day market timing seminar in Amsterdam, June 2. For details, contact info@markettiming.nl .

            The SOS Stock Market Cycles Report came out last week, and not the MMA Cycles Report, as originally scheduled, due to holidays in Japan this week. These reports come out every 6-8 weeks to subscribers of these reports. This report is in two parts. The first report - SOS Stock Market Cycles - focuses purely upon the long-term cycles in the U.S. stock market, specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average, followed by discussions on both intermediate and short-term cycles. It is the big picture ahead.
The second part is the SOS Global Stock Markets Report. This covers the German DAX, London FTSE, Netherlands AEX, the Australian All Ordinaries, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the XAU Gold and Silver Mining index. For ordering information


              The Forecast for 2007
: There are about 50 copies left of Forecast for 2007 book. I expect they will sell out by the middle of the year. If you wish one of the remaining copies of this very valuable reference book (especially for traders), you can still order a copy via our web site.
This year's book is a little larger than previous year's (8 pages longer), but as always, it shapes up to be another exciting year. All years of this decade are significant due to the “Triple Saturn” oppositions which started in 2001. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, the annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Special sections included on The United States and its President, Interest Rates, Stock Markets, Precious Metals, Currencies, Crude Oil, Weather, and Grain markets. And of course: the all-important Critical Reversal Dates for financial markets in 2007. If you wish to order a copy online of this year's book, or call us at 1-800-MMA-3349.

When they are gone, they are gone. Despite the fact that we increase our printing orders every year, we have still sold out two of the past three years. So order now and make sure you get a copy - if you wish one.

For more information.

             The Forecast for 2007 CD is now available! This 2-set CD was created from the speech given January 6, 2007 in Birmingham , Michigan . It is about 2.5 hours long, and covers both the long-term political and cultural cycles we are currently in, as well as those that pertain specifically to 2007. Special areas of discussion include the Crude Oil and the coming energy transformation, the long and short-term economic cycles, the USA and its President, and of course, financial market cycles of stocks, interest rates, housing, and precious metals. The cost is $45.00 plus postage for the CD set. To order, please write to odersmma@msn.com, or call us at 1-800-662-3349, or 248-626-3034.             

             The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifies “Big Range Days” - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders: high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is that “extra edge.” And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

             If you are an active short-term trader, you may wish to consider subscribing to our Weekly or even Daily Market Reports with short-term trading recommendations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.

             The next “MMA Cycles Report” and “MMA Japan Markets Cycles Report” will come this Monday-Tuesday. These reports come out every three weeks to subscribers of these reports. The “MMA Cycles Report” (Monday night by email) is our market advisory report for traders of the U.S. stock indices, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Euro, Swiss Franc, Grains, and Crude Oil. The “MMA Japan Cycles Report” covers the Nikkei, Dollar/Yen, and JGB Bonds, and comes out Tuesday afternoon. For more information

             I have had several calls regarding a “crisis investing” portfolio that I suggested could be developed with the help of a money manager who subscribes to my reports, and shares my views about the next few years. If you are interested, you can contact him at ted.fisher@comcast.net.
He will be more than happy to assist you.



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