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The best market timing for Silver

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
JUNE 4 - 2007

Raymond A. Merriman©

Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Note: I am issuing this week's report early (before Friday's close) due to workshops in Amsterdam .

The Market Week in Review :

             Once again, many of the world's stock indices continued making new all-time or multi-year highs for much of last week. The reversal signals from the prior week (may 24-25) were again only modest in their effect, as this "blow-off" continues in many world equity markets. The fact that it would be another "fake out" followed by new highs was indicated in our daily technical signals early last week. Additionally, precious metals may have bottomed and are also starting nice reversals from lows of the past 1-3 weeks, also covered in our daily and weekly reports. Even the currencies seem to be getting into the act (i.e. signs of a possible reversal back up now, as discussed previously).

Short-Term Geocosmics :

             This week begins a new and long geocosmic cluster zone. Beginning on Monday, June 4, and lasting through July 1, there are 13 geocosmic signatures unfolding. There are no more than 5 calendar days between any two consecutive signatures during this span. With clusters this big, you oftentimes have 2 or 3 reversal periods within it, such as: June 5-9, when we have two big Level 1 signatures present. Since June 9 is a Saturday, we extend this period to cover June 4-11.

             On June 4, Mars will trine Jupiter, which is oftentimes bullish for equities, especially if they have already been rising, as this market has. On June 5, the Sun will be in opposition to Jupiter, a very powerful Level 1 signature that has a 75% correlation to primary or greater cycles in U.S. stock indices within 10 trading days. On June 9, the Sun will square Uranus, another huge Level 1 signature. For those who study astrology, this geocosmic combination is known as a T-square between Sun, Jupiter, and Uranus. If markets rally into here, it could be an important top (perhaps primary, perhaps greater). If they start to decline into here, the amplitude of the decline may be severe, and may even continue into the middle of the month.

             Last week's report stated: "The Sun in opposition to Jupiter is a very important signature from an historical perspective. Within 10 trading days, there is a 50% correlation to 50-week or greater cycles, as reported in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlation to Trading Cycles. It is one of the most consistent and powerful correlates we have noted to major changes of trend in stock U.S. stock indices. In the case of the waxing square between the Sun and Uranus, its correlation to primary cycles is even greater that Sun-Jupiter opposition. It has been present in 82% of cases studied when given an orb of 11 trading days. Jupiter rules exaggeration combined with either optimism or hysteria. Uranus rules the unexpected and sudden surprises. Financial astrologers will have yet another opportunity to see if the Jupiter-Uranus square dynamic continues this unusual "blow-off" by breaking above one resistance level after another (as it has since the lows of March), or it suddenly catches - and markets do commence an impressive retreat that is long overdue." .


Long-Term Thoughts :

             I am going to use this section of this week's column to answer a couple of questions from readers (and subscribers). The first has to do with my observation that Jupiter and Uranus in hard aspect (conjunction, square, and opposition) can be signature of "blow-off" markets, where prices just "blow through" one resistance level after another. During these times, no other geocosmic signatures seem to coincide with reversals down of any importance or endurance, until the "blow-off" is exhausted. That has been going on all this year in regards to U.S. stock indices (and several other world stock indices too). And the Jupiter-Uranus square has been operative since January 22. This same phenomenon happened during and after the Jupiter-Uranus opposition of August 2003 too. One reader asked about how to trade this type of market, and another asked about the conventional meaning of a "blow-off."

             Let's approach the latter question first. Many analysts refer to a "blow-off" as a market that starts to exhibit a parabolic form to its ascension. The rally may start very gradually, perhaps at a 30-45 degree rising angle. But then the amplitude of the rally suddenly accelerates, and becomes more and more vertical, from a 45 to a 75% or more angle. But a "blow-off" in our terminology doesn't have to be limited to a parabolic form. In terms of our methodology, a "blow-off" market is any in which a pyramiding strategy can be employed successfully (and this answers the first question too). That is, whenever a "blow-off" market takes out the low of a previous day, you can buy (add onto long positions) each time it reverses back up and makes a new high. You set your stop-loss just below the lowest price, or "isolated low" that just formed. In "blow off" markets, no decline takes out the low of a previous isolated low, or at least the low of the previous cycle of the same type. But once it makes an isolated low, it continues to rally afterwards to higher and higher highs, which is why "pyramiding" then leads to enormous profits - until the "blow-off" exhausts itself. And that is when you have to be very careful, for the declines that follow blow-off markets can quickly wipe out all the profits if one is not careful. The declines that follow are usually just as powerful in their amplitude as the rallies of the blow off itself, with one exception: the declines are much quicker than the rallies.

             From a cycles' point of view, we tend to witness "blow-offs" in the last phase of a cycle, and not in the earlier stages. In the early phase of any cycle, the market is bullish. It goes up longer than it comes down, and the low does not go below the start of the cycle. But in the last phases of a bull market cycle, the market may or may not make a new high. If it does, it can be a "blow-off." But the important thing to note is that the decline of the last phase of a bullish cycle is the most severe of the entire cycle, whether the rally was a "blow-off" or not.

             So here we are in the midst of the 14-year Jupiter-Uranus cycle. This is a quarter phase of that cycle (happen about every 3.5-years). Once again the stock market defies gravity and goers up through one resistance zone after another, and through one geocosmic reversal signature after another. And we still believe this is the last phase of the longer-term 4-year cycle, due to bottom by the end of this year. This cycle has no doubt been bullish. It hasn't turned parabolic yet, but it may not. It doesn't have to. It is a "pyramiding" market, when pyramiding strategies would yield immense profits while in effect. Had one followed this method of trading, there would have been only one loss (mid-March) since December 1 (last 7 months), with many, many profitable entries. .

Announcements :

           I am in discussion with the Adams Mark Hotel in Denver about hosting the next full MMA Market Timing workshop the weekend of July 13-15. Hold those dates on your calendar if you are interested in learning this form of market timing and analysis. Denver is "Rocky Mountain high-beautiful."

            The SOS Stock Market Cycles Report came out last week, and not the MMA Cycles Report, as originally scheduled, due to holidays in Japan this week. These reports come out every 6-8 weeks to subscribers of these reports. This report is in two parts. The first report - SOS Stock Market Cycles - focuses purely upon the long-term cycles in the U.S. stock market, specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average, followed by discussions on both intermediate and short-term cycles. It is the big picture ahead.
The second part is the SOS Global Stock Markets Report. This covers the German DAX, London FTSE, Netherlands AEX, the Australian All Ordinaries, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the XAU Gold and Silver Mining index. For ordering information


              The Forecast for 2007
: There are about 50 copies left of Forecast for 2007 book. I expect they will sell out by the middle of the year. If you wish one of the remaining copies of this very valuable reference book (especially for traders), you can still order a copy via our web site.
This year's book is a little larger than previous year's (8 pages longer), but as always, it shapes up to be another exciting year. All years of this decade are significant due to the “Triple Saturn” oppositions which started in 2001. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, the annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Special sections included on The United States and its President, Interest Rates, Stock Markets, Precious Metals, Currencies, Crude Oil, Weather, and Grain markets. And of course: the all-important Critical Reversal Dates for financial markets in 2007. If you wish to order a copy online of this year's book, or call us at 1-800-MMA-3349.

When they are gone, they are gone. Despite the fact that we increase our printing orders every year, we have still sold out two of the past three years. So order now and make sure you get a copy - if you wish one.

For more information.

             The Forecast for 2007 CD is now available! This 2-set CD was created from the speech given January 6, 2007 in Birmingham , Michigan . It is about 2.5 hours long, and covers both the long-term political and cultural cycles we are currently in, as well as those that pertain specifically to 2007. Special areas of discussion include the Crude Oil and the coming energy transformation, the long and short-term economic cycles, the USA and its President, and of course, financial market cycles of stocks, interest rates, housing, and precious metals. The cost is $45.00 plus postage for the CD set. To order, please write to odersmma@msn.com, or call us at 1-800-662-3349, or 248-626-3034.             

             The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifies “Big Range Days” - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders: high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is that “extra edge.” And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

             If you are an active short-term trader, you may wish to consider subscribing to our Weekly or even Daily Market Reports with short-term trading recommendations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.

             The “MMA Cycles Report” and “MMA Japan Markets Cycles Report” will come out this week. These reports come out every three weeks to subscribers of these reports. The “MMA Cycles Report” (Monday night by email) is our market advisory report for traders of the U.S. stock indices, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Euro, Swiss Franc, Grains, and Crude Oil. The “MMA Japan Cycles Report” covers the Nikkei, Dollar/Yen, and JGB Bonds, and comes out Tuesday afternoon. For more information

             I have had several calls regarding a “crisis investing” portfolio that I suggested could be developed with the help of a money manager who subscribes to my reports, and shares my views about the next few years. If you are interested, you can contact him at ted.fisher@comcast.net.
He will be more than happy to assist you.



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