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The best market timing for Silver

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
NOVEMBER 12 - 2007

Raymond A. Merriman©

The Market Week in Review :

             The sub-prime mortgage woes in the U.S.A. continue to unsettle investors around the world, despite efforts by the FED the prior week to alleviate those concerns by lowering the FED funds rate. That rate reduction was greeted positively the day it was announced. But ever since then, equity markets have plunged. And the free fall in the U.S. Dollar has investors concerned, despite Treasury Secretary Paulsen's insistence that a strong Dollar is in the country's best interest. Now what tools do they have available to calm the brewing storm?

             All world stock indices plunged last week. Some - like the Japanese Nikkei and Swiss stock index - are now testing their lows of August. This suggests that the 4-year cycle might not have bottomed then, but is in the process of doing so now. If that is the case, we may still see indices fall more than 20% below their multi-year and all-time highs of the past few weeks. As pointed out in prior columns, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has plunged at least 20% in over 85% of historical cases after the 4-year cycle tops out. The decline into August 16 was only 11% off the prior highs in July. That was a very short decline (only one month) and the lowest percentage of decline on record, if indeed that was a 4-year cycle trough. It was never confirmed because prices never broke the 23-month moving average.            

             On the other hand, the Euro currency continues its blow-off to new all-time highs, while the Dollar falls to new all-time and multi-decade lows against other currencies. In sympathy, Gold tested its all-time last week, reaching $848.00 on Wednesday, November 7. Silver soared to a multi-year high of $16.27 on the same day in the overseas markets. Crude Oil also put in another new all-time high on the same day, as it hit $98.62.barrel. Our forecast of $100.00/barrel, made over two years ago based on Uranus transiting the middle degrees of Pisces, is essentially being achieved now. Uranus will end its retrograde motion and turn direct on November 24 at 14 degrees, 46 minutes of Pisces. That's about as "middle of Pisces" as you get.

Short-Term Geocosmics :

             We are getting close to the middle of one of the most important geocosmic clusters of the year. As stated last week, "The time band continues to be in effect of so many important geocosmic signatures to one another between October 25 and November 30. Near the middle of this cluster, Mars will turn retrograde on November 14, something it does every 25-26 months... We note that the all-time speculative high of $850.00/ounce in Gold occurred in mid-January 1980, just a couple of days past a Mars retrograde. Interesting enough, Saturn was in Virgo then too, a position it occupies for about two years in its 29-year orbit around the Sun. Saturn just ingressed into Virgo in early September 2007, where it will remain through fall of 2009. And interesting also is that Gold is back above $800 for the first time since then. Same planets, same signs (for Saturn), same Gold prices. How is that for synchronicity?"

             So here we are. The middle of this huge geocosmic cluster is right now. Mars goes retrograde this week, followed by Uranus on November 24. And on December 11, the 13-year cycle of the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction will take place. Is it any wonder that these markets are so nervous right now, and exhibiting such large price swings? Readers of this column know that when signatures involving Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus are prominent, financial markets oftentimes go berserk. Blow-offs to new cycle highs that break all resistance zones, or panic selling to new cycle lows that break all support zones, result in huge profits or losses for many traders, depending on whether they are on the right or wrong side of these moves.

             The large price swings could continue as this week begins with the "Sagittarius Factor" (Moon in Sagittarius) on Monday. This single lunar signature has a high correspondence to big range days in several financial markets. The week also begins with a waning square between the Sun and Neptune, a Level 1 signature for stocks that also has tendency to coincide with rumors and misinformation or poor analysis of the situation (yes, more of that). And then on Wednesday, Mars turns retrograde through the last days of January.

             Is there any hope ahead? Yes. Venus has now moved into the sign it rules - Libra - on November 8, where it remains through December 5. Generally speaking, this is a mostly bullish time for equities and bearish for many commodities, like Gold and Silver. But with the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction looming ahead, and having themes pertinent to a crisis in debt markets (which we are indeed now experiencing), there will be a battle between these two contradictory cosmic forces. It suggests some days of very strong rallies, intermixed with other days of very strong declines. It may be a good time to be a day trader, and not take the risk of holding overnight positions.

Long-Term Thoughts :

             The question on everybody's mind right now seems to be: "Is this it? Is the big decline starting that will result in a major depression and stock market collapse?" After all, the FED seems to be losing control. Their efforts to please market players the previous week were for naught. The markets have not been stable since,

             We are currently in the decade of a "Triple Saturn Oppositions." This was described in last year's Forecast Book in great detail. This is when each of the 32-45 year cycles between Saturn and the planets outside of its orbit (Uranus, Neptune and Pluto) come into an aspect of an opposition. It doesn't happen very often that these three oppositions unfold within a span of just ten years. In fact, it has happened only three times in the history of the U.S. stock market (last 200 years). In each case the stock market made a new all-time high. And in each case a prolonged bear market followed that lasted at least 23 months, and prices dropped at least 40%.

             Do I think the stock market has now topped out and such a bear market is beginning? No, not yet, although that opinion could change depending on market patterns that could unfold at any time. I believe that before the final top is in, we have to get within 10 months of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, the last of the three Saturn oppositions that will take place November 2008 through July 2010. After all, this signature (and its conjunction) has the highest correlation of any planetary combination to very long term cycle highs or lows. I think Bernanke and Paulsen will still continue their utmost to avoid a recession or outright stock market crash on their watch. I just don't think these fire sign heroes have much tolerance for financial market pain, and plenty of ingenuity to try unexpected things that will surprise everyone. But I do wonder what they can do right now to strengthen the Dollar, if we are to assume that Paulsen is sincere in his insistence he favors a strong dollar. As I see it, there are only three ways to change the course of the Dollar in the very near future. First, raise interest rates in U.S. (or lower them in Europe). I don't see that happening. Second, orchestrate a coordinate currency intervention amongst central bankers to buy dollars and sell the euro. That could happen, but it will not solve the problem for long. Third, start a war. When wars start, the U.S. Dollar becomes the "safe haven" currency. Hmmm... with Mars turning retrograde, That would not be advisable right now. Under Mars retrograde, the aggressor usually loses big time. Think Argentina and the Falkland Islands back in the early 1980's.

             Before leaving, you can thank the author and the writer by clicking on one of the pictures (advertisements) located on the right hand side.... it will cost you nothing... !!!

Announcements :

             The next “MMA Cycles Report” and “MMA Japan Markets Cycles Report” will come out this week. These reports come out every three weeks to subscribers of these reports, although it will change to a monthly issuance cycle next year, so that the "SOS Global Stock Market Cycles Report" can be increased to a monthly issuance cycle as well. The "MMA Cycles Report" (Monday night by email) is our market advisory report for traders of the U.S. stock indices, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Euro, Swiss Franc, Grains, and Crude Oil. The “MMA Japan Cycles Report” covers the Nikkei, Dollar/Yen, and JGB Bonds, and comes out Tuesday afternoon. For more information      

Our MMA 2013 catalogue is now out and available to overseas clients on our web site at www.mmacycles.com , and then under MMA Catalogue, and then under MMA Catalogue (pdf). Or just click here. Due to high overseas postal costs, we will no longer send this catalogue out by postal mail except to clients in the U.S.A. So, if you are interested in this year's services and products, you can download it from our web site.

              The Forecast book for 2008 : is coming out December 15. Written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, it is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Although 2007 is still unfolding, many of the Forecast outlined in this book have already come to pass, including :

- 1) real estate bubble ending ;
- 2) lack of bi-partisan support from Congress for President's military efforts and tax policies ;
- 3) President's lack of cooperation with Congress and the subsequent increase in investigations into his past decisions ;
- 4) President's efforts to increase military activity in Iraq, not decrease, despite special reports advising to the contrary ;
- 5) the economy is not collapsing in 2007 ;
- 6) higher Euro currency prices - at least test of its all-time high, before September 2007 ;
7) Soybeans bullish in 2007, possibly exceeding 900 ;
8) Crude Oil due to bottom early in year and soar to new all-time highs by 2008.

And of course: the all-important Critical Reversal Dates for financial markets, which have been impressive in 2007. The cost of this year's book will remain at $45.00. Order before December 10 to be certain that your order goes out in the first delivery.

            The German version of "Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics" is now in print. It is also a revision of the earlier work in English. For more information on this book, please go to our German web site.

For more information, go to our website at http://www.mmacycles.com, and read the latest "News" items. This new report will be issued once/month, instead of the previous schedule of 8 times per year.

             The new SOS Global Market Cycles Report came out last week. This SOS report will now be issued monthly (12 times per year) starting the first week of December. This report will address the long- and intermediate-term cycles that affect all world markets, but specifically through the history of the U.S. stock market, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is the "big picture" ahead. It will then give an overview (and projection) of the shorter cycles (primary and its phases) of the German DAX, Netherlands AEX, the Australian All Ordinaries, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the XAU Gold and Silver Mining index. For ordering information.

             My next financial presentations will take place in all day workshops on January 19 and 26 in Cologne, Germany and Basel, Switzerland, respectively. For further information, please go to EVENTS on our web site at www.mmacycles.com . The German version of "Merriman on Market Cycles : The Basics" is now in print. It is also a revision of the earlier work in English. For more information on this book, please go to our German web site at www.mma-europe.de.

             The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifies “Big Range Days” - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders: high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is that “extra edge.” And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

            If you are an active short-term trader, you may wish to consider subscribing to our Weekly or even Daily Market Reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers : "I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them."


            I have had several calls regarding a “crisis investing” portfolio that I suggested could be developed with the help of a money manager who subscribes to my reports, and shares my views about the next few years. If you are interested, you can contact him at ted.fisher@comcast.net.
He will be more than happy to assist you.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.


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