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The best market timing for Silver

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
DECEMBER 10 - 2007

Raymond A. Merriman©

The Market Week in Review :

             This week's report is being issued before U.S. markets close, due to travel plans.

             Most world stock markets continued their powerful rally following our last critical reversal zone of November 24, +/- 3 trading days. This corresponded with Uranus changing directions, and within 2 days or less, most of these markets made their new cycle lows, and have rallied substantially in the past 7-10 trading sessions. In the Pacific Rim, for example, the Japanese Nikkei market has now rallied nearly 10%. After making a new yearly low of November 22 at 14,669, it traded as high as 16,107 on Friday, December 7. During this same two week-period, the Hang Seng of Hong Kong rallied from 25,861 to a high of 29,962, for a gain of nearly 16%. India's Nifty soared from a low of 5394 on November 22 to a high of 6042 on December 7, for a gain of nearly 12%. Australia's All Ordinaries index also rallied from a low of 6373 on November 22 to a high of 6727 on Friday of this past week. Similar strong gains were noted during this period of time in European and U.S. markets, which are still trading as this is being written. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for instance, bottomed at 12,724 on November 27, and by early Friday (8 trading days later) was up nearly 1000 points to 13,650.

Short-Term Geocosmics :

             We are now in the middle of another potentially powerful geocosmic reversal zone. On Friday, December 7, the Sun formed a waning square Uranus. On Tuesday, December 11, Jupiter will make its 13-year conjunction to Pluto. As stated in last week's column, "Jupiter and Pluto come together only every 13 years, and together they can coincide with a sense of urgency, even hysteria due to the nature of Jupiter (it exaggerates whatever it contacts). In this case, it contacts Pluto, ruler of debt and fear of the worst. The sub-prime mortgage tragedy is a perfect example of today's Jupiter-Pluto crisis... to read all the solicitations by the financial expects, you would think that this crisis will never end. The aspect soon comes to an end, and just as it has in the past, such crises will come to an end too." In the past week, we have already begun to see the government forge a plan to deal with this crisis.

             Also starting this week, heliocentric Mercury (not geocentric) will starts its ingress of Sagittarius, December 8-19. Typically, at least the first 4-9 days of this ingress correspond with sharp moves in many markets, including precious metals. My observation is that about 65% of the time metals will be higher, 20% of the time sharply lower, and 15% of the time, just back and forth. It will be interesting to see what happens this time, for it is occurring during a Mars retrograde.

             But perhaps even more important than the signatures of this week will be the period of December 18-31 when transiting Jupiter, the Sun, and the Mars retrograde will ingress over the 0 Capricorn and 0 Cancer points. In the process, they will conjoin the Sun and Pluto opposition at 0-1 degrees of Capricorn-Cancer in the Federal Reserve Board chart (founded December 23, 1913). Theoretically, this will correspond to important movements in the interest-related markets, like Treasuries and currency rates. For more on this, see below.

Long-Term Thoughts :

             Last week's column stated the following: "But one thing to keep in mind: the market community is looking for the Federal Reserve to make another interest rate cut. I agree with this outlook, for after all, as Jupiter moves into Capricorn in mid-December, it will oppose the FRB Pluto and conjunct its natal Sun. This is a signature of accommodation, or lowering rates. We should have this gift in time for the holiday season. And so as long as that belief is out there, there is no reason for the stock market to go back down to the levels seen a week ago." That statement has proved correct as the stock markets continued their torrid advance, following the November 24th episode of Uranus turning stationary direct. Stock indices around the world bottomed within 2 days before to two days after Uranus changed direction, as suggested, and a FRB easing policy - lowering of interest rates - is something that shows up in the Treasury prices. As Treasury prices go up, interest rates come down, and vice-versa.

             The history of the only two times that this event has occurred since the first trade of the U.S. Treasury Bond market supports this astrological interpretation. The first occurrence of transiting Jupiter in conjunction to the FRB Sun-Pluto opposition took place January 19-24, 1984. On January 4, 15 days before the aspect occurred, T-Bonds made a significant low at 69/16 - its lowest level since August 1983. Between January 16 and February 2, T-Bonds topped out between 71/14-71/24, a new monthly high. It was the last high (low in interest rates) seen for quite awhile. By July 2, T-Bonds were near historic lows at 59/12. In other words, the FRB was accommodative, or at least not tightening, when Jupiter first went into Capricorn, as it conjoined the FRB Sun. This was reflected in the Treasury prices, which rallied during that period to important crests. But once it passed, Capricorn exerted its expected effect on T-Notes (and FED policy) as rates went up (or, as T-Bonds went down sharply).

             The second and only other occurrence of the 12-year cycle of Jupiter in Capricorn was its last passage of January 3-8, 1996. Once again, 2-3 weeks prior to this transit, T-Bonds were making a trading cycle low of 117/29 on December 19, 1995. Once again, T-Bonds rallied sharply right into the Jupiter transit of the FRB Sun-Pluto opposition, topping out at 122/08, on January 4. Price didn't break down immediately (they still traded as high as 121 on February 13). But they did top out January 4, and once they started falling, they did not stop until July 8 of 1996. By that time they were all the way down to 105/28. Lest one believes that FRB easing should only show in shorter-term maturities, the same pattern was reflected in the 2-year notes as well. So here too, Jupiter entering Capricorn corresponded with a crest. After that, rates went up and T-Bonds fell sharply for nearly 6 months.

             Jupiter will conjoin the Sun-Pluto opposition December 19-23, 2007. Will a similar pattern happen again? Can the fact that the pattern was nearly identical in both prior cases, serve as useful trading or investment guide this time? Of course - as long as one knows how to use it as a guide. I would not bet against the street's conventional wisdom that the FRB will lower interest rates this month. And if so, these studies suggest that this month may be the last chance to lock in these low rates of today for several months, for those thinking of re-financing.

             Previously I have stated that it is not the purpose of this free weekly column to make such predictions. The purpose of this column is to educate the reader on the astrological environment coming up. In making market forecasts, I - like most of you - use several tools. Astrology is one of the factors, and the least understood of the tools I use. Hence this free weekly column. But my forecasts and recommendations are reserved for subscribers of my reports, and they are based upon at least three other tools (cycles, technicals, and chart structure, and even fundamentals). It is very seldom that you get all of these studies pointing in the same direction, but when you do, it has a high probability of unfolding, and therefore warrants a forecast and a recommendation. Some (very few) readers may sometimes lament that market analysis is much about "... if the market does this, then expect that," instead of "the market will do this and that." The fact is that over 70% of the time, these studies are not complementing each other, and it is simply a case of waiting for "this or that" to unfold to get them in synch. No analyst can control that, and certainly an astrologer cannot. No one can, and experienced traders know this. 70% of the time the market is in congestion or giving mixed signals, according to different tools an analyst uses. Sometimes an analyst's recommendation to stand aside and be patient until the majority of studies are in place is the best recommendation he/she can give to a trader. In the case of T-Bonds and other treasuries, you may be getting such a set up by the end of this month, the kind that warrants a firm recommendation. And we will keep subscribers posted on that per our daily, weekly, and monthly subscription reports. But for this free column, understand that it generally analyzes only the astrological factor, and therefore readers should not view these thoughts as recommendations, but rather as educational discussions. It is not a case of "You get what you pay for," because an education in Financial Astrology can be a very valuable adjunct to one's trading methodology, especially in terms of identifying high potential "reversal" zones in any market. In fact, nothing is better for that purpose, in my sincere opinion, which is based upon my own personal experience.

             By the way, I do not mind if readers send snippets of this free weekly report to their trader friends, as long as it is done in the spirit of good will and helpfulness, and proper credit is given.


Announcements :

             The “MMA Cycles Report” and “MMA Japan Markets Cycles Reportcome out last week. These reports come out every three weeks to subscribers of these reports, although it will change to a monthly issuance cycle next year, so that the "SOS Global Stock Market Cycles Report" can be increased to a monthly issuance cycle as well. The "MMA Cycles Report" (Monday night by email) is our market advisory report for traders of the U.S. stock indices, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Euro, Swiss Franc, Grains, and Crude Oil. The “MMA Japan Cycles Report” covers the Nikkei, Dollar/Yen, and JGB Bonds, and comes out Tuesday afternoon. For more information     

Our MMA 2013 catalogue is now out and available to overseas clients on our web site at www.mmacycles.com , and then under MMA Catalogue, and then under MMA Catalogue (pdf). Or just click here. Due to high overseas postal costs, we will no longer send this catalogue out by postal mail except to clients in the U.S.A. So, if you are interested in this year's services and products, you can download it from our web site.

              The Forecast book for 2008 : is nearly completed, and will be taken to then printer for publication next week. It is due to be released on December 14. This will be a special edition, covering the major candidates for the 2008 Presidential Election. It will also have a special section on Pluto in Capricorn (2008-2023), and what it means to investors. Thus it will be about 20 pages longer than ever. coming out December 15.
Written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, it is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Although 2007 is still unfolding, many of the Forecast outlined in this book have already come to pass, including :


- 1) real estate bubble ending ;
- 2) lack of bi-partisan support from Congress for President's military efforts and tax policies ;
- 3) President's lack of cooperation with Congress and the subsequent increase in investigations into his past decisions ;
- 4) President's efforts to increase military activity in Iraq, not decrease, despite special reports advising to the contrary ;
- 5) the economy is not collapsing in 2007 ;
- 6) higher Euro currency prices - at least test of its all-time high, before September 2007 ;
7) Soybeans bullish in 2007, possibly exceeding 900 ;
8) Crude Oil due to bottom early in year and soar to new all-time highs by 2008.

And of course: the all-important Critical Reversal Dates for financial markets, which have been impressive in 2007. The cost of this year's book will remain at $45.00. Order before December 10 to be certain that your order goes out in the first delivery. Available also in German at www.mma-europe.de. If you live in Europe, Canada or Australia, now might be a great time to order while your currencies are so high against the U.S. Dollar. A change of trend is coming, and may have already started this past week. Please note that this book has sold out two of the previous five years. If you plan to order, don't delay too long. When they are gone, they are gone and not reprinted. For description of this book, please go to that link.

             The German version of "Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics" is now in print. It is also a revision of the earlier work in English. For more information on this book, please go to our German web site.

For more information, go to our website at http://www.mmacycles.com, and read the latest "News" items. This new report will be issued once/month, instead of the previous schedule of 8 times per year.

             The new SOS Global Market Cycles Report will come out this week, December 12 (December 11 for email subscribers). And it will be out one day later in German to our German SOS subscribers (please go to www.mma-europe.de in to order the German version of SOS). This SOS report will now be issued monthly (12 times per year). This report will address the long - and intermediate-term cycles that affect all world markets, but specifically through the history of the U.S. stock market, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is the "big picture" ahead. It will then give an overview (and projection) of the shorter cycles (primary and its phases) of the German DAX, Netherlands AEX, the Australian All Ordinaries, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the XAU Gold and Silver Mining index. For ordering information.

             My next financial presentations will take place in all day workshops on January 19 and 26 in Cologne, Germany and Basel, Switzerland, respectively. For further information, please go to EVENTS on our web site at www.mmacycles.com . The German version of "Merriman on Market Cycles : The Basics" is now in print. It is also a revision of the earlier work in English. For more information on this book, please go to our German web site at www.mma-europe.de.

             The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifies “Big Range Days” - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders: high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is that “extra edge.” And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

             If you are an active short-term trader, you may wish to consider subscribing to our Weekly or even Daily Market Reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers : "I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them."

             I have had several calls regarding a “crisis investing” portfolio that I suggested could be developed with the help of a money manager who subscribes to my reports, and shares my views about the next few years. If you are interested, you can contact him at ted.fisher@comcast.net.
He will be more than happy to assist you.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.


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