MMA WEEKLY - Financial Astrology commentary, Market timing, MMA Cycles, The Merriman Market Analyst

The Market Week in Review :

The last two weeks have presented an interesting drama between the various aspects of geocosmic studies, and the market behavior in a distorted primary cycle.

On July 10, Mars began its "translation" of the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition. On that day, it formed its conjunction with Saturn. On July 15-16, three-four trading days later, many (but not all) of the equity markets of the world ended a multi-month decline at their lowest levels in about two years. This was also at the end of the "Sagittarius Factor," a 2-day monthly lunar cycle zone when the moon is in Sagittarius. This particular solar-lunar cycle has a higher than average correlation to reversals in U.S. stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, dropped to 10,827 on that day, July 15, its lowest level since its July 18, 2006 low of 10,683.

By Wednesday-Thursday of this past week, July 23-24, as the Moon was in Aries, the stock markets topped out and then had a very sharp one-day decline. In the DJIA, for example, the index had risen to 11,698, a gain of over 860 points in only 6 trading days, or nearly 8%, well above the 4% minimal level that the lunar reversal signature from July 16 indicated. But on July 24, the DJIA fell 283 points in just that one day. The high of July 23 took place under the very powerful solar-lunar reversal signature of the Leo-ingress Sun and Aries moon. This solar-lunar cycle has a weighted value score of +183. Anything over 120 has a "better than average" probability of reversing from an isolated low or high, according to the studies in "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading Reversals." Anything over +150 is very strong, and above +200 is unusually strong. This was one of the stronger solar-lunar correlations to a short-term trading reversal. And it worked immediately. Thus it was an excellent signal because a trader's greatest goal is to achieve "maximum profit potential with minimal market exposure." Application of the solar-lunar studies do not get any better than these last two instances of July 15-16, and then July 23-24. By the way, these solar-lunar weighted values are now given daily on our web site at www.mmacycles.com.

But back to the Mars "translation" of the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition. The low of the move occurred on July 15 (in the DJIA), the 25 th week from the previous primary cycle low of January 22, when the DJIA had put in its prior yearly low at 11,634. That level was surrendered, plus another 800 points, into the low of July 15. Yet at the same time, the NASDAQ Composite only fell to 2167, which was 12 points higher than its yearly low of March 17, 2008. It didn't fall back to its 2006 levels. It didn't even fall below its low of March 17, 2008. This is a classical case of "intermarket bullish divergence". This pattern, in a distorted primary cycle and at the end of a very long and heavily populated geocosmic time band, might account for the strong upsurge that began on July 16, even with Mars in translation to the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition. Typically, primary cycles in the DJIA last 13-21 weeks. Since this one lasted 25 weeks, it was a "distortion" (expansion) of the normal primary cycle. When primary cycles "distort" and occur outside of their normal time band, it is usually followed by powerful rallies that can last several weeks. Now let's see if this one does the same. Or, in typical Uranus fashion, will this market make another break back down either during or at the end of this "translation" period, which lasts into August 6 ? Besides that, the Mars-Uranus opposition at the end of this period can coincide with more earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, electrical blackouts, accidents or even a terrorist event. It is not wise to take on risky ventures.

And has anyone noticed that Crude Oil is now falling rapidly since the Sun-Jupiter opposition of July 9, in line with its 18-month cycle low that is due anytime before the end of October ? Our call for a $30.00-50.00 decline by October is coming close, as Crude Oil has now declined $25.00 in just two weeks.

Short-Term Geocosmics :

This week begins another critical reversal zone. But this time it is much more limited and therefore focused. From July 26 through August 6, there will be four major geocosmic signatures present. The middle of that period coincides with the solar eclipse of August 1, so there could be a strong "eclipse-effect" upon world financial markets within one trading day. August 1 also coincides with the release of the Unemployment and Payroll reports in the USA. The combination could be dramatic, especially given that it is a solar eclipse in the sign of Leo, the sign of drama. Oftentimes this type of eclipse also has a correspondence to big price swings in grain prices.

Long-Term Thoughts :

Presidential election years in the USA seem to produce unusual market patterns. Conventional wisdom (and a good deal of historical data) holds that the U.S. stock market generally rallies into an election, and then falls into the middle of the President's four-year term. In actual practice, however, the stock market rallies into an election and tops out afterwards when the same party is voted back into office. If this tendency continues, it would suggest that the low of July 15 would hold, and a new bull market, leading to all-time highs, would be underway and would last into 2009, if Republican John McCain was to be elected. On the other hand, if the Democrat party and its candidate Barack Obama is to be victorious, this would suggest that the U.S. stock market has already topped out. It will not make a new high this year.

But through various studies that I have published, there is also a pattern of the "Pre-Presidential Election Year" trough that occurs between October and March preceding the election. Sometimes this trough can be very unnerving, and expands as late as July. It can even take out the low of the previous year or two. There are only two instances in the past 50 years which have relevance to this year's election cycle. In 1960, the U.S. stock market also made a low in July, followed by a sharp 4-week rally that did not make a new yearly high. The market then plunged to a 2-year low right into the election. That was the year John F. Kennedy, the young and charismatic Democrat, won a narrow victory over the more experienced Republican, Richard Nixon. The Republicans had held the presidency under Dwight Eisenhower for the prior 8 years. Many believe this year's 2008 election has many of the same qualities - and themes - as the 1960 one, with many comparisons between the young and charismatic Barack Obama to John F. Kennedy. After the stock market low that formed right near the election date, a new bull market commenced that took the DJIA to record highs in the following 9 months.

The second instance took place in the 1984 election. The incumbent, Ronald Reagan, was mired in a political scandal involving support of Nicaraguan rebels. From an all-time high in October 1983-January 1984, the stock market began a multi-month decline that also lasted into July 1984. It fell to its lowest price since early 1983. But then it suddenly reversed, starting a rally that would carry it to new all-time highs into August 1987. Reagan and the Republicans won re-election in landslide.

What can we learn from the past regarding this year's election ? Any new low in the U.S. stock market between now and the election probably favors an Obama victory. And a new high probably favors a McCain victory. The fact that the DJIA took out its lows of January and March is not a conclusive sign that this is a bear market. There have been instances in the past where this has happened as late as July in an election year, and the market still soared to make new yearly highs shortly afterwards. Very few people expect this, of course, because this is not the "normal" chart pattern. But it has happened before and can still happen again. But if the market makes new yearly low after July and before (or into) the election, it usually portends a change of party in office. It means the current party in office is losing its power and the support of its people. With a 29% approval rating for the current Republican president - the lowest on record - Republican candidate John McCain has his work cut out for him.

But there is one question I would like to ask Senator McCain (and Senator Obama), given my comments in last week's column regarding the abundance of aspects in his (McCain's) chart to the Mars position in the USA chart, and its correlation to expanding military activities if President : Would you re-institute the military draft ? Americans (and others around the world) would like to hear some "straight talk" on that question. With Pluto going into Capricorn for 15 years immediately after this election, the symbolism of forced (involuntary) military service is certainly a strong possibility in many countries, including the USA, which has Pluto in Capricorn natally. This can be a signature of excessive nationalistic tendencies by world leaders, to the point of forcing citizens to work for (serve) their countries, even against their will, in the name of patriotism.

Announcements :

The last "MMA Cycles Report" and "MMA Japan Markets Cycles Report” came out this past Monday Tuesday (July 23). These reports come out every month to subscribers of these reports. The "MMA Cycles Report" is our market advisory report for traders of the U.S. stock indices, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Euro, Swiss Franc, Grains, and Crude Oil. This report will be issued Monday night to those who receive it via email. The "MMA Japan Cycles Report" covers the Nikkei, Dollar/Yen, and JGB Bonds, and will come out Tuesday afternoon. For more information.
If you are a subscriber to this report and did not receive it, please let us know. If you are not a subscriber, and you are interested in the longer-term outlook for U.S. and world stock indices, then I suggest you consider taking out a subscription and getting that last report.
It is also available in German (please go to www.mma-europe.de in to order the German version of SOS). This monthly report addresses the long - and intermediate-term cycles that affect all world markets, but specifically through the history of the U.S. stock market, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is the "big picture" ahead, like where we are now in terms of the 18 - and 4-year cycles. It will then give an overview (and projection) of the shorter cycles (primary and its phases) of the Netherlands AEX, the Australian All Ordinaries, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the XAU Gold and Silver Mining index. The German edition will give analysis also of the German DAX and Swiss Market Index (SMI). For ordering information, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/services/the-sos-stock-market-cycles.

The next "SOS Global Market Cycles Report" will come out one week earlier than we previously indicated. It will be released August 5. For more information and subscription on either of these two monthly reports, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services.

We have added an exciting new feature to our web site. Now, on the very front page, you can get a daily update on the weighted values of the Solar-Lunar cycles for the Dopw Jones Industrial Average and the Silver market, via the studies conducted in "The Ultimate Book on Sock Market Timing Vol 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Trading Cycles," and "The Sun, Moon And Silver Market : Secrets of a Silver Trader." These are the studies, I use personally when trading stock index futures, ETFs (like DIA and Silver fund), and Silver futures. Anything over 100 means it has an above average correlation to reversing from an isolated high or low if it forms that day. The higher the value, the more probable the reversal. To see these daily values, please go to www.mmacycles.com , and just check it out.

My next Market Timing Workshop will take place at "The Blast Astrology Conference" in Sedona, AZ, on Saturday, September 20 th , 2 pm to 6 pm. Cost is $145.00 if signed up by August 15. The title will be "Introduction to Financial Astrology and Market Timing." For more information on this workshop, go to http://blastastrologyconference.com/schedblast2.html. It ought to be a "Blast!"

Our MMA 2013 catalogue is now out and available to overseas clients on our web site at www.mmacycles.com, and then under MMA Catalogue, and then under MMA Catalogue (pdf). Or just click here. Due to high overseas postal costs, we will no longer send this catalogue out by postal mail except to clients in the U.S.A. So, if you are interested in this year's services and products, you can download it from our web site.

The German version of "Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics" is now in print. It is also a revision of the earlier work in English. For more information on this book, please go to our German web site at www.mma-europe.de.

The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifies "Big Range Days" - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders: high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is that "extra edge." And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

If you are an active short-term trader, you may wish to consider subscribing to our Weekly or even Daily Market Reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers : "I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them."

I have had several calls regarding a “crisis investing” portfolio that I suggested could be developed with the help of a money manager who subscribes to my reports, and shares my views about the next few years. If you are interested, you can contact him at ted.fisher@comcast.net.
He will be more than happy to assist you.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

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