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MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
July 11 - 2011
Raymond A. Merriman©
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You may view a video of Raymond Merriman, taken from a lecture given to traders of the ICE exchange last October 2010, where I discuss the long-term cycles in the U.S. Dollar and U.S. stock market.
The Market Week in Review :
Surprise ! Well, what should we expect under powerful Uranus signatures ? : Expect nothing !.
The expectation was for the USA Labor Department to report an increase of 125,000 new jobs for the month of June. Instead it was a disappointing increase of only 18,000. On top of that, unemployment jumped up to 9.2% and wages fell, also disappointing surprises. In the 1960's, there was a popular folk-rock song called "Where Have All the Flowers Gone ?" Today Americans are lamenting "Where Have All the Jobs Gone?" Or, "Where Have All the Stimulus Monies Gone ?" But it is not be a folk-rock tune this time around ; its a blues tune, because when you ain't got no job, you ain't got no money, and soon your baby 'a gonna' leave you too !.
On Thursday, July 7, Venus formed a waxing square to Uranus. On Saturday, July 9, Uranus turns retrograde. And right in between those two days (Friday, July 8), Venus was in opposition to Pluto. Uranus rules the unexpected, Venus rules money and love, and Pluto tends to negate or devalue whatever it touches. So the markets expected a positive jobs report, but when the numbers came out Friday morning, there weren't any new jobs to speak of. Instead, the most frequently spoken words by analysts after this report were "I am shocked". Shock.... that's another word that belongs to the domain of Uranus.
The jobs report was not what was expected, but the stock markets' reaction to that "shock" was very predictable. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened triple digits lower, after having rallied strongly ever since the double bottom primary low of June 23. In fact, that rally really took off on Monday, June 27, one day after the Sun formed a waxing square to Uranus. You might say the rally that began then was unexpected, and the size of it was also a shock. The DJIA went from a low of 11,874 to a high 9 trading days later on Thursday, July 7, at 12,753, testing the three-year high achieved on May 2 at 12,876. Early Friday, after the payroll report, the DJIA was down 150 points, but managed to claw its way back to closing down only 62 points. It wasn't as bad as feared, and that is because equities are in the early stage of a new primary cycle, which is (almost always) bullish.
Commodities followed this same wild roller coaster ride as stocks. Crude Oil bottomed at 89.61 on June 27, one day after the Sun-Uranus square, and one week following the suspicious release of crude from the petroleum stock inventory when Mars squared Neptune, the ruler of Crude Oil. By July 7, the price was up to 99.42, a jump of 10% in 8 trading days. It received helped on July 7 from the trine of Jupiter and Pluto that day. Jupiter is the co-ruler of Crude Oil.
Gold and Silver ended their slide down on July 1 and then they reversed up this week. The only difference is that following the "shocking" employment reports on Friday Gold and Silver kept on rising, whereas equities and Crude Oil closed lower. When there are suddenly no jobs and no money, people get frightened and start searching for something that is real money in hard times that may be "a coming". But not too worry too much. In typical Uranian fashion, this may be just a lot of noise and a sharp blip on the screen. Saturn is in Libra and has started going direct June 12, so there will likely be more new jobs to show up in July and further on, and there is still a lot of money looking for a home. The only problem is that this money is still not getting into the hands of people who need it the most - the unemployed and underpaid - and that is a recipe for social unrest, fueled by politicians waging class warfare in their quest for more votes. My guess is that both the jobs market and the stock market will recover soon. But will wages ?.
Short-Term Geocosmics :
We are right in the middle of the Venus translation to the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto T-square. Venus entered Cancer last Sunday, July 3, and from July 7 through July 13, it completes the grand square to Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto. This would normally imply a reversal in several financial markets, except with Uranus you don't usually get "normal". On top of that, Uranus is stationary, changing from a direct to a retrograde motion on Saturday, July 9. When planets change direction, their dynamics are highlighted for a few days. Thus, we are in Uranian times right now. Nothing goes as expected and the element of surprise - or "shock" - is everywhere. Of course, it is possible that some of these surprises are positive. As for instance, the Thursday ADP jobs report, which revealed that 157,000 new jobs were created. This is what I mean by Uranus and surprises. Thursday's ADP jobs report was extremely positive and then one day later, the Labor Department's jobs report was extremely disappointing. Which one is right ? I think ADP.
Nevertheless, we note that the last aspect involving the Venus translation this week will be its waning square to Saturn on Wednesday, July 13. Any market that is declining into a Venus-Saturn aspect is a good candidate for bottoming and then reversing back up.
Longer Term Thoughts and Personal Astrology Transit Tales :
There is hope from the transit of the Sun and Venus as they complete their translations to the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto T-square. In the process of moving through the early degrees of Cancer, they form conjunctions to the USA Venus, Jupiter and Sun through the end of this week, July 15. In the field of astrology, the Sun, Venus, and Jupiter are known as "benefics". So when two of these benefics (Sun and Venus) conjunct all three of the benefics in the natal USA chart, the element of hope is increased. And so it is that during this period that the news reports indicate Congress and the White House are nearing an agreement on the debt ceiling limit. There was a missed opportunity in May, according to principles of Financial Astrology, when transiting Venus was making harmonious aspects to other transiting planets. Venus pertains to agreements and compromises. But now we have another window of opportunity from late June through July 15.
The positive news reports are based on compromises both parties appear willing to make. The Democrats seem ready to agree to major spending cuts for domestic and entitlement programs. The Republicans appear willing to agree on a cut in defense spending and a boost in tax revenues through closing several loopholes that have been used by businesses and wealthy individuals as a means of reducing their taxes. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, "The... deal could tether entitlement program changes to a broad tax overhaul that would end tax breaks to generate the revenue Democrats want in exchange for lowering individual and corporate rates, which Republicans want".
If this is true, then what is the hold up ? It probably has to with the constantly shifting stance on also raising taxes. Last week's Wall Street Journal reported, "Even the dispute over taxes seems manageable. Democrats aren't trying to raise tax rates... they are trying to raise revenues by going after tax advantages enjoyed by... the oil and gas industry, and a broad array of other tax reductions". But then this week's report once again finds the President including more than $1 trillion in tax increases in his proposals, causing a potential regression in these discussions.
The idea of overhauling the tax code and increasing revenues by closing loopholes instead of raising individual or corporate taxes seems like a very positive way to handle the waning side of the Saturn-Pluto cycle. This is the part of the cycle when governments typically increase their debt load via massive spending increases that cannot be afforded, and then they try to make it up by raising taxes and borrowing monies (sales of Treasury notes and bonds). The combination of higher taxes, higher spending, and higher borrowing needs, leads to more numerous and deeper economic recessions. Stock markets also experience more frequent bear markets, while commodities like Gold and Silver tend to appreciate. This phase of the Saturn-Pluto cycle was in effect 1966-1982, and is back 2001-2020. But what if you did raise revenues to reduce the debt by eliminating the tax loopholes and tax deferments as they presently exist, instead of raising tax rates, while at the same time you were able to agree on spending reductions ? It seems too sensible a plan for the two parties to agree upon. But the Venus aspects of compromise to the USA chart are present now through July 15, and the willingness of the two parties to work this out in the next week offers great hope to not just Americans, but to the entire world. If the USA defaults on August 2, as Mercury turns retrograde, the entire dynamic will change and the consequences could be painful for the remainder of this decade. This will become America's "Lost Decade".
There is one part of Friday's Wall Street article that is of concern to this process however. The article states, "Mr. Obama told lawmakers Thursday he wouldn't sign any agreement that does not extend the debt ceiling through the 2012 election". Why not ? Is there a reason why the U.S. electorate should not have a vote in this matter if the two parties can't come to an agreement over tax cuts, tax hikes, and spending cuts ? What does this say about the government's trust in the intelligence of the people it serves ? Is it better to allow the debt ceiling limit to be violated and enter into a default than to pass a one-year measure, if necessary to avoid default, and then put the issue to the vote to the American people in next year's election ? This is the problem with politics today. This is the issue with Pluto in Capricorn. Do I try to pass measures that truly benefit the country, give people the opportunity to express their positions on issues of importance to all, or do I arrange matters so that they enhance my chance of re-election ? Probably both.
The problem for Mr. Obama that I see is this : if Mr. Obama is re-elected (and at this point I think he will be) and the debt ceiling becomes a crisis in 2013 again, he will then face the prospect of impeachment. Why? Because the Uranus-Pluto square will form a grand square to the USA Sun/Saturn square at 11-14 of cardinal signs. The Sun is the President (leader) of the nation, and Saturn is the structure of its government. If the debt isn't brought under control by then, the entire government is vulnerable to upheaval. In my opinion, given today's signatures and those of 2012-2015, it is best if an agreement on the debt (taxes and spending) can be forged right now. If not, the second best thing for Mr. Obama would be to let the people decide via their vote in November 2012, rather than carry it over unresolved into his next term without giving people the opportunity to express their choice on the matter via the ballot box.
Pluto is in Capricorn. Pluto was in Capricorn in 1776. The USA is soon to have its first Pluto return. Pluto relates to taxes and debt. The country was founded on protests involving these very issues. It's back. Have you noticed that both parties are continually quoting the Founding Fathers to support their positions ? There is a cosmic reason for this. It's cyclical.
To be continued... (next week)
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If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations (see a sample there, of the weekly). It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In fact, since September 2011, both the daily and weekly reports have been extremely accurate and profitable for both position traders and short-term aggressive traders. Position traders in stocks indices, for instance, were put long back in November 2010 when the DJIA traded slightly below 11,000. They have remained long through the entire rally since then (over 1200 points, and over 12%). These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers : " I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them ".
The final Volume 5 : there are few things in life that give me as much fulfillment as getting into the heart of writing a good book. There is always a point when you realize you are treading new ground and coming up with valuable insights that make the entire effort all come together. And so it is now that I come to the final stages of completing the final 5th volume of "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing" series. This will complete the project that started in 1996. The previous 4 volumes have been on "when" to buy and sell, or how to forecast a future cycle low or high. This last volume addresses the subject of "where" to buy and sell, or at what price to buy and sell. It is the art and science of "forecasting price targets". It is the missing link to the first four volumes. It details the mathematical formulas and technical studies used to enhance timing of entry and exit in any market, but especially stock indices. The book is on target to be out in September 2011, as stated earlier. If you have one of the first four volumes, or if you subscribe to any MMA subscription report, you have received a special pre-publication offer in early May (or call us to place your order if you want to make sure you are on the list). We should point out that Volumes 2 and 3 will probably be sold out before this new volume comes out. There are less than 15 copies of each available. We will allow them to remain out of print for a while before reprinting. If you have purchased one of the volumes, or if you are a subscriber to our market reports, and did not receive a letter from us in early May regarding a pre-publication special price, then please call us for that offer, which will be in effect only until July 1. At that time we will announce a different pre-publication price to the public.
It's out!!! ! The "Forecasts for 2011 Webcast " with Raymond Merriman that took place on Sunday, January 9, 2011 is available by DVD or CD. It is available now via "Streaming Review " for 27 days, or through MP3 purchase. It was a good presentation, filled with many investment ideas with timing insights. The cost for the MP3 or Streaming Review is $45.00 (no postage). The cost of the CD is $45.00, + postage. The cost of the DVD is $59.99 + postage. The market charts used in the presentation will be emailed to you separately in a PDF format. To purchase your copy of this Forecast 2011 webcast, just register at the MMA Website, or drop us an email ( firstname.lastname@example.org ) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. And remember : if you sign up for this report now, you will receive a free copy of the English version of the Forecast 2011 Book while supplies last !
The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions - the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report
will come out this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, or attachment via direct emails, for subscribers.
- The U.S. version covers the stock market (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, T-Notes, Euro and Swiss Franc currencies, grains and crude oil. It also provides the list of geocosmic and solar-lunar reversal zones for the 1-2 months. This report comes out Monday night to subscribers.
- The MMA Japanese Markets Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen.
- The new MMA Europe Cycles report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX stock indices, each in english only and will be available on Wednesday.
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Upcoming Events :
August 13, 2011 : San Francisco, CA. Financial Market Timing seminar, featuring Raymond Merriman and other market timers. Details to be announced shortly at www.tsaasf.org. Immediately afterwards will be a special meeting with MMA subscribers who are present.
January 6-7, 2012 : Zurich Switzerland. Forecast 2012 Symposia sponsored by AstroData. Details to be announced shortly at www.mma-europe.ch.
March 16-18, 2012 : The 8th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman.
April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing", focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact email@example.com.
May 24-29, 2012 : UAC !!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world.
Mid-September 2012 : The first annual "MMA International Cycles Summit on World Economy, Politics, and Financial Markets". Location will be in Lake Bled, Slovenia, one of the most beautiful regions in the world. Details will be announced soon. It's on! .
The MMA Catalogue of products and services for 2013 is now out!!! You can download it in PDF. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not mail these out by mail unless requested.
We are pleased to announce that the Spanish publication of "Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing " has just been completed. For more information and ordering, please contact www.lecochonsideral.info/PubliMERRI/Espagnol/Annee2012/semana.html.
We also have our new CD available : "The Cardinal Climax 2008-2015 : Investment Opportunities and Dangers ". This 75-minute CD outlines the most powerful geocosmic configuration of our lifetime : The Cardinal Climax of 2008-2015. This presentation examines the historical, long-term geocosmic signatures that are present 2008-2015, how they correlated to economic crises in the past, and how they will likely impact various financial markets and investment opportunities this time. In fact, many of the themes are already underway. Approximately 75 minutes, with PDF file of charts used: $25.00 plus postage.
I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org, or 1-(303) 545-5837. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at email@example.com. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as to exactly when to enter and exit any market. They will be more than happy to assist you.
To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the "Best in-house fund of funds " in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, please contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.
The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifies "Big Range Days " - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders: high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is that "extra edge ". And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.