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The best market timing for Silver

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
November 28 - 2011

Raymond A. Merriman©

The printed version of Forecast 2014 will be translated into several different languages again this year, and many of these publishers are also offering pre-publication specials as follows :

Chinese - Chinese        Dutch        Deutsch         Japanese       Russian                               Spanish       Italiano

Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2014, as will our Chinese distributor : "Your work is essential to anyone who is serious in this field. I can't thank you enough for it".

We will start printing comments here from readers of last year's book. The Third is : R. F., Vice President at one of America's largest investment banks. "I never go to the office without it - wish there was a bound edition to buy". Chuck S, Money Manager, Casper, WY.

Go to the sheet for Downloading the video for the Ultimate book on stock market timing.

The Market Week in Review :

It was a bad week for equity and commodities markets around the world. It was a bad week for Americans, its President, and Congress as well. It was the week that began with the Debt Reduction Super Committee's inability to agree to reduce the USA deficit by $1.2 trillion, thus moving the United States ever closer to yet another downgrade of its credit standing. With Uranus within orb of its waxing square to Pluto, all touching off key parts to the USA natal chart, it is coming - unless different choices will be made by leaders very soon, and different than we have witnessed in the past five months.

It was the week that the Sun moved out of the foreboding and ominous debt-related sign of Scorpio when changes could have and should have been made to secure the credit worthiness of the USA, paving the way for its entrance into Sagittarius where everyone would celebrate hard because hard decisions had made and the future looked bright again. But they failed to choose that Sagittarian possibility. Instead they chose the Sagittarian path of panic and hysteria because these decisions hadn't been made and the future suddenly looks harder and more out-of-control than anyone wanted to believe possible. They figured they could "kick that can down the road" again into the 2012 elections, when voters would make that decision for them. Never mind that voters just made that decision a year ago.

The only problem is that the credit rating agencies may not wait that long before downgrading the USA creditworthiness for a second consecutive time - another first in USA history. The markets didn't like the government's choice to not make a choice. The USA stock market sold off. In fact, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal, this was the worst Thanksgiving week since 1942, when Thanksgiving was officially declared to be the fourth Thursday of November. Usually it is a week of gains, and in particular, the day before and the day after Thanksgiving are two of the most consistent up days in stocks of any days in the year. Not this time. In fact, its performance was the worst in nearly 70 years.

In Sagittarius, everything is big and exaggerated. It's usually positive because Sagittarius is ruled by Jupiter and both represent the principal of hope and optimism. But they are also associated with the principals of risk-taking and gambling. What happens when Mercury is turning retrograde as well ? You take a risk, raise the ante, bluff your opponent, and then your hand is called out. You have nothing to back up your exaggerative and over-confident posturing. Instead of winning big, you lose it all. Instead of celebrating, you panic, because this isn't the way it was supposed to turn out. This is how the USA economy is played in the game of political poker - with taxpayers' monies and future - in the 21st century.

But there are things to remember about how markets function, at least to a technical analyst. For one thing, there are rules for bull markets. In bull markets, each cycle high and each cycle low of the same cycle type is higher than the prior one. If we look at the behavior of the market over the past few weeks, we will see that this bullish characteristic is still in play. For example, nearly all of the world's markets made long-term cycle lows in late September or early October. They all rose sharply into our three-star critical reversal zone of October 28-31, some appreciating as much as 20-30%, as in Europe. In the USA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved from a yearly low of 10,404 on October 4 to a high of 12,284 on October 27, a gain of 18% in a little over three weeks. That pattern happened all over the world.

But the study of cycles consistently illustrates that corrective declines take place every 5-7 weeks a primary cycle trough (80% rate of frequency), or if that skips, then a more serious decline into weeks #8-10. Last week was the 7 th week since October 4, and prices of all equities are declining into this period from the highs of October 27-31. And so far, none of these declines have been lower than the lows of late September and early October, except in Japan. Not only that, but in many cases, the decline has only been in the normal 40-60% retracement zone of the move up from October 4-28. The decline in the DJIA, for instance, has been to a low of 11,243 on Friday, November 25. This is a correction of 55% of the previous move up. So far, this is within the range of "normal". Yet it seems everyone is ready to panic. Everyone is ready to be the negative side of Sagittarius, just because politicians and political leaders are behaving badly. Well, if any sign knows how to do "the bad thing good", it is Sagittarius. However, they can also be gamblers, and when they lose, they lose big and then it becomes evident that they do everything bad and big. The politicians gambled big last week and neither side gave in, and now we all stand to lose big time.

Last week didn't produce the happy ending that Sagittarius and Jupiter count on. It didn't produce the happy ending that I projected last week could occur, based on my own understanding of the Sun, Mercury, and Venus traveling into and through Sagittarius, and the historical seasonality of stock prices rallying so consistently on the days surrounding Thanksgiving. But the "good will" of all that is in contrast to the reality of the ever enveloping waxing square between Uranus and Pluto, which will hang over world political and banking leaders for the next three years like a gathering storm cloud suffering constipation, getting bigger and bigger, more and more ominous, and ready to burst at any moment. We already saw signs of this suffering when Uranus and Pluto came within one degree of exactness last July and August. The agonizing spectacle of Congress and the president struggling to reach a debt ceiling limit reprieve, finally secured at the very last moment, but leading to the economic diagnosis from the S&P credit rating agency that the USA financial health system was in a deteriorating state - its financial well-being was downgraded for the first time ever. And now, 3 months later, the diagnosis is reconfirmed through the unwillingness of the patient to take its diagnosis seriously. The condition is worsening. At some point, as the Uranus-Pluto square will unleash its full force, and all that Pluto waste will come crashing down.

Here is why it was a bad week for President Obama. He took another huge gamble with America's future, and of course his own future. He bluffed that by sticking to the idea that taxes on the wealthiest must be raised, American's would buy into his campaign fight that these wealthy people are not paying their "fair share" and that's why the economy is suffering. It was a gamble because he knows that the 2010 election was mandate against his wishes for higher taxes to anyone. The Republicans had a major victory, with most being elected on the promise not to raise taxes. So by making that the "line in the sand" to reduce the deficit by the needed $1.2 T, he gambled that Republicans would go against their campaign promise rather than accept deep cuts in the military budget, their "sacred cow." Of course, by doing this, he risked deep cuts that would also take place in social entitlement programs, like Medicare and Medicaid, sacred cows of his own Democratic party. The Republicans couldn't back down from their promise of new taxes this time as they did in 1990, but instead they did offer a sizable "tax revenue enhancer" of cutting back on tax loopholes, which would result in a lot more revenue for the country than simply raising the tax rate of those who make over $250,000. But he didn't take it. His campaign posturing had already begun, and it was centered on this idea of the wealthy "paying their fair share" of taxes, not by taking away their sacred "tax loop holes", because after all, don't those people who contribute the most to presidential campaigns benefit from those loopholes the most ? And as far as "fair share" of taxes, according to the Tax Foundation, the "dreaded top 1% earn about 20% of income today (in America)... and they also pay 37% of the federal income taxes", according to Arthur Brooks in a Wall Street Journal article on November 25.

Yet that is not why it was a bad week for Mr. Obama. It was a bad week because when he returned last Monday from his trip to Australia, just as the Debt Reduction Super Committee was about to announce its failure in his absence, the Wall Street Journal printed an explosive opinion piece titled "The Hillary Moment". Written by well-known Democratic Party strategists Patrick Caddell and Douglas Schoen, the article was a passionate appeal for President Obama to step down from running for a second term. "President Obama can't win by running a constructive campaign, and he won't be able to govern if he does win a second term", the article stated. It went on to argue : "By going down the re-election road and into partisan mode, the president has effectively guaranteed that the remainder of his term will be marred by the resentment and division that have eroded our national identity, common purpose, and most of all, our economic strength... If President Obama is not willing to seize the moral high ground and step aside, then the ... Democratic leaders in Congress... must urge the president not to seek re-election". Bam! From leaders within his own party! And this was then doubled down by liberal news commentator Chris Matthews, who was an ardent supporter before, in a YouTube video gone viral, titled. "The Thrill is Gone" ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB4b11_LREA ).

It was a bad week for the markets. It was a bad week for Obama. It's a harbinger of what is to come under Uranus square Pluto. But you know what ? The stock market decline of last week broke some important support. And reversal zones with Uranus involved can just as easily become breakouts as reversals. Breakouts begin with support levels breaking down. But the most important support zones - the 40-60% correction areas - are still holding. It may reverse yet, or if the DJIA breaks below 10,950, we know we have something to really worry about. And the same is true with Obama's re-election chances. Despite the fact that he took a huge gamble with America's economic future last week, and despite the fact that so many within his own party are starting to turn on him, he is still the incumbent and transits to his own natal chart still show his power potentially growing in the world, for better or worse. He can still win and it very unlikely that he will take "the moral high ground" that Cadell and Schoen pleaded with him to take. Chances are that is not part of his game plan. After all, he is a Leo. What Leo would ever realize he/she is the issue ? No. In his world, where that Leo Sun and Mercury is squared by Neptune, he is the rescuer, the savior, who might also be the underdog and victim. That's his world. And that is how the election is going to be framed, especially now that transiting Chiron and Neptune are about to square his natal Moon, and move into opposition to his own natal Pluto. This is just a different reality than most of us live in. The challenge will be to connect the two.

But you know what I still can't understand ? How is it unfair that 1% of the people make 20% of the nation's income, and then pay 37% of its taxes ? And why will raising their taxes make more of a difference to solving our financial debt problem than eliminating the tax loopholes that account for so much more lost revenues ? Doesn't that mean less money for consumers to spend, which is really the key to raising revenues by climbing out of this high rate of unemployment problem ? Why does raising anyone's taxes in a financial crisis, as well as defeating a balanced budget amendment (yes, that was defeated in Congress too last week) help us get back onto on the road to fiscal sanity and economic control of our destiny ? In an economy that continues to fall further and further into debt and risk threat of further downgrades, how can raising taxes on anyone and refusing to balance a budget be considered fiscally responsible ? Answer me that ! .

Short-Term Geocosmics :  

Due to deadline for Forecast 2012 Book coming up, I will have no Short-Term Geocosmics or Longer-Term Thoughts this week. They will resume next week, as the Forecast 2012 Book is now written and will go to the printer next week. For a preview of the Forecast 2012 Book, please see our most recent video.

Longer Term Thoughts :

D.

For a preview of the Forecast 2012 Book, please see our most recent video.

To be continued... (next week)  

Announcements :

             Our new 2012 MMA Catalogue of products and services is now out!!! You can download it in PDF. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not mail these out by mail unless requested.

             It's that time of the year again ! MMA's annual Forecast Book is now being written. The Forecast 2011 Book will be completed in early December and sent out to those who pre-order it by December 15.This year's rate will remain at the same rate it has been for past two years, $55.00 (plus postage, unless ordering the EBook version. The annual Forecasts Book , written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Although 2011 is only a little more than 75% over, several forecasts made in the 2011 book have already unfolded. For a list of some of these forecasts, please go to the front page of our web site. There you can also place your order for the Forecast 2012 and assure your order goes out in the first mailing of December 15. Or call us at 1-248-626-3034.

             If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations, (see a sample there, of the weekly). It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report.
If you want more informatio call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers : "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations.  I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA.  In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000.  Thanks for your excellent publications". - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.  

             The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5 : Price Objectives and Technical Analysis is out !. The comments and reviews are starting to come in, and we will post them here over the next few weeks. "I am a long time Merriman Market Analysis Newsletter reader. It has never ceased to amaze me how accurate those levels are given in the newsletter. I often wonder how Ray calculates those levels. By setting up my trades using those levels together with his timing methodology, I have profited greatly. I sincerely feel that Volume 5 of the series finally gives the whole investment community the full story about Ray's lifetime work and the complete description of his financial astrology methodology. It will be a great treasure to all serious market participants". Kenneth Laio, Trader and Chief Technology Officer, Sequoia Media Inc., Beijing, China.
It took two years to write this one, which is par for each of the five books of this series that started in 1997. That was around the time I decided I wanted to "tap into the soul of the stock market", like there is such a thing. Turns out there is, in my opinion. But it depends on how you interpret "soul". If you accept that it is a connection between the observable and the intuitive, that patterns do exist and like oracles, they oftentimes do reveal the future, then it exists. This is a book describing the tools that serious traders that I know use. I use them. Many of my subscribers use them, although not that many know how I calculate price targets to go along with market timing. This book identifies the formulas I personally use to calculate price targets, and the trading plans I find that work using these market timing and technical indicators. This book is packed with powerful tools (signals), and if you take the time to learn these tools properly, your chances of being a successful trader will increase tremendously, IMHO. The book is 300 pages, printed in perfect bind format, gloss cover, 8-1/2" x 11" size. The retail price of this new book is $144.00. The publication of Volume 5 will complete the project that started in 1996, and covered approximately 1600 pages of studies and strategies for all types of traders and investors, using our market timing methods. In all, this is a complete and unified approach to analyzing (and trading) financial markets, and especially stock markets. If you are interested in this unique and integrated methodology for analyzing and forecasting stock indices, you can save big bucks by ordering all five volumes, or choice of any four now, or just go to www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. If ordering all five volumes, you will save $99.00 !.
For more information on this book, go to YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnplAS5m2AI, describing this new book. It is "the missing link". You may want to check this video out, as it contains some interesting long-term tips. You can also download that video there and read more comments.

             The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions - the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report went out last week. If you are subscriber to any these monthly reports and did not receive it, let us know at once via our email.

- This report covers our long term analysis of the stock market (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, T-Notes, Euro and Swiss Franc currencies, grains and crude oil. It also provides the list of geocosmic and solar-lunar reversal zones for the 1-2 months. This report comes out Monday night to subscribers.
- The MMA Japanese Markets Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen.
- The new MMA Europe Cycles report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX stock indices, each in english only and will be available on Wednesday.
For subscription information, please go to our web site , or call us at 1-248-626-3034. If you are not a subscriber, you can check this service out on a 2-month trial basis for only $50.00.

Upcoming Events :

             December 18, 2011 : "Webcast" for Forecast 2012 " A "Virtual On-line Discussion and Forecasts for 2012 with Ray Merriman!" will take place on Sunday, December 18, 2011, starting at 1:54 PM EST. The cost for this live webcast is $45.00. For information to be a part of this event, go to our got to website at www.mmacycles.com, under EVENTS, Or call us at 1-248-626-3034. Instructions to log in will be sent upon making reservations.

             January 6-7, 2012 : Zurich Switzerland. Forecast 2012 Symposia sponsored by AstroData.

1°)
 January 6 lecture on "Uranus Square Pluto : Consequences of the Debt Crisis for Financial Markets". A look at the historical correlation of Uranus-Pluto in hard aspect to world economics, debt, and financial markets. Is this the turning point, or bottom of the debt crisis ? Or is it the point where the consequence of not resolving the debt results in a collapse of the financial system, and the need
to completely rebuild it ? And what might that look like if that is the case ?

2°)
 January 7 workshop on " Financial Astrology and Perspectives for 2012 " : This workshop will be in three parts. The first will give an overview of the correlation of cycle studies to geocosmic signatures (Financial Astrology). The second will discuss the projection of these studies onto today's financial, markets, including precious metals, equity markets, and currency prices - where are we in the cycle and where are we headed. The third part will be question, answer and discussion. Each participant will be allowed to ask one question. Mr. Merriman will give his answer to it, and then facilitate a limited group discussion on the question, as time allows. The intent will be to make sure everyone has a clear outlook on the prospects for each market in 2012.

Workshop on Financial Astrology: Looking at Gold, Silver, Currencies, and Equity Markets for 2012. Details to be announced shortly at www.mma-europe.ch, or contact ASTRODATA AG, Chilenholzstr. 8, 8907 Wettswil, Switzerland, Tel. 41 (0) 43 343 33 66, or email info@mma-europe.ch.

             January 21, 2012 : Amsterdam, Netherlands "Forecast 2012". The date is not yet finalized, but will be shortly, and it will be around this date.

             March 1 and 3, 2012 : Hong Kong, China".Forecast 2012" on Thursday, March 1 and a full day intensive on "Financial Market Timing" on Saturday, March 3, with emphasis on Gold, Silver, Currencies, and Equity Markets for 2012. Organized by Earlthorn.Com at the Excelsior Hotel, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Contact Teresa Wong at 852-2529 1211 (phone), or by e-mail at earlthorn@hknet.com. A special 90-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers will follow the workshop on March 3 .

             March 9-11, 2012 : The 8th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman.

             April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado".Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing", focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com.

               May 24-29, 2012 : UAC !!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world.

             Summer 2012 : San Diego, CA. Topics and date To Be Determined.

             The MMA Catalogue of products and services for 2013 is now out!!! You can download it in PDF. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not mail these out by mail unless requested.

             We are pleased to announce that the Spanish publication of "Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing " has just been completed. For more information and ordering, please contact www.lecochonsideral.info/PubliMERRI/Espagnol/Annee2012/semana.html.

             We also have our new CD available : "The Cardinal Climax 2008-2015 : Investment Opportunities and Dangers ". This 75-minute CD outlines the most powerful geocosmic configuration of our lifetime : The Cardinal Climax of 2008-2015. This presentation examines the historical, long-term geocosmic signatures that are present 2008-2015, how they correlated to economic crises in the past, and how they will likely impact various financial markets and investment opportunities this time. In fact, many of the themes are already underway. Approximately 75 minutes, with PDF file of charts used: $25.00 plus postage.

             I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 545-5837. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as to exactly when to enter and exit any market. They will be more than happy to assist you.

             To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the "Best in-house fund of funds " in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, please contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.

             The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifies "Big Range Days " - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders: high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is that "extra edge ". And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.


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