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MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
March 18 - 2013
Raymond A. Merriman©
Financial Market Analyst & Market Timer.
The printed version of Forecast 2014 will be translated into several different languages again this year as follows :
Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2014, as will our Chinese distributor : "Your work is essential to anyone who is serious in this field. I can't thank you enough for it".
The E-Book version is also out, and it is now out in Amazon Kindle too. Click on this link, or search "Forecast 2013".
Go to the sheet for Downloading the video for the Ultimate book on stock market timing.
The Market Week in Review :
In many regards it was a noteworthy week according to the principles of Mundane and Financial Astrology. With the new moon in spiritual sign of Pisces, along with Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Neptune, it was a cosmically fitting that the Catholic Church elected a new pope. It is also fitting that he took on the name of Saint Francis, who was known for his compassion of the poor and suffering. He stressed qualities that astrologers ascribe to both the sign of Pisces and Saint Francis of Assisi, "... emphasizing the church's humility, poverty, and charity", according to the Wall Street Journal. So with Neptune in Pisces for 14 years, and with a new moon and so many other planets in Pisces, a new era for Catholicism - and really, for all world religions - may now be underway.
But the mundane and economic dangers inherent with the Uranus-Pluto waxing square were still ongoing as well, as we witnessed last week. Cyber-attacks continued to be in the news, as fresh accusations emerged of such warfare between the USA and China. Tax reform discussions were also highlighted, as both the Republican-led House and Democrat-led Senate released their budgets. In the case of the Senate, it was their first budget proposal in four years. As expected, each body of Congress roundly rejected the other. Uranus and Pluto find it so hard to find common ground these days, especially on the very critical topic of tax reform. Pluto pertains to rejection and Uranus to new and bold ideas. Good luck !.
Equity markets were mostly positive again last week, with several making new yearly highs, and in the case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, new all-time highs. But the move up was not explosive, nor was it matched by indices in several other regions of the world. This too is typical of this stage of the Mercury retrograde cycle, as it prepares to return to its direct motion on Sunday, March 17. Typically markets grind away, back and forth, in smaller and smaller trading ranges, when Mercury is at the end of its retrograde cycle.
For instance, Europe's leading indices were mostly all making new yearly highs last week, with the German DAX testing its all-time high. But the Netherlands AEX was still below its highs of January. It was even more bizarre in Asia, where the Japanese Nikkei Index continued its torrid rally to its highest level since 2008. It is now up 4000 points and nearly 50% in less than 5 months. But China's Shanghai and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indices fell last week, with the Hang Seng at its lowest level of the New Year.
Gold and Silver also sloughed around in narrow ranges last week. The markets that looked most interesting were the currencies, especially the Swiss Franc and Euro, which showed signs of life after recent lows. Crude oil did too. But even in these cases, the weekly range was not that great. Perhaps by the middle of next week, we will start moving away from the stationary period of Mercury, and both price swings and technical levels of support and resistance will return to more normal patterns. That's the way it usually happens.
Best Trades of the Past Week :
The long position advised in the Swiss Franc last week is working out very well now. Very few trades were initiated last week due to the limited ranges in financial experienced as Mercury turns direct. One of the short-term trades given that did catch was in the June E-Mini S&P. Tuesday's daily report (March 12) advised, " Aggressive traders can buy support with a stop-loss on a close below 1537". Daily support that day was 1543.50-1545. The low was 1541.75. Two days later the daily report advised, "You may cover at 1555 +/- 1 if offered". The high that day was 1557. It closed the week at 1553.50, so we captured most of the move up last week. This is a typical short-term trade we will give during Mercury retrograde.
For more information on the daily or weekly market reports, please follow this link, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
Short-Term Geocosmics :
Planets begin moving out of the gentle and compassionate sign of Pisces this week, and into the more aggressive, assertive, and bombastic sign of Aries. Don't get me wrong - there is much to like and admire about Aries. They are determined. They are active. But they are not given to the empathy and understanding of others associated with Pisces. This may be important because the "charm offensive" initiated by President Barack Obama to Republican members of the House and Senate may abruptly change - again - over the next month.
On Friday, March 22, Mars begins its translation to the Uranus-Pluto square. First it conjuncts Uranus on that date, and then two days later it will form the square to Pluto. The Sun and Venus do the same thing (translate the Uranus-Pluto square) between March 28-31. In other words, the cosmic climate can get stormy again. Along with that, several financial markets may erupt into sudden reversals. In Mundane Astrology, these are indicators of natural and man-made dangers. These are also accident-prone signatures. Thus, safety should be a primary concern for everyone, and it would be wise to think twice before acting or speaking on impulse. Traders : get ready. There is likely to be some exceptional short-term profit opportunities arising. Of course, that also means there is an increased risk of loss too if you are on the wrong side.
Longer Term Thoughts :
"The path back to stronger growth, argues Mr. Alesina, is a combination of significant, permanent , cuts in public spending and relatively small tax increases, if any". What helped ? "Adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly in terms of output losses than tax-based ones. Spending based adjustments have been associated with mild and short-lived recessions, in many cases, if at all. Tax-based adjustments (tax increases) have been associated with prolonged and deep recessions".
- Daniel Henninger, Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2013, discussing the results of a research paper on "fiscal consolidation" written by Harvard economist Alberto Alesina for the National Bureau of Economic Research, which analyzed the history of all fiscal plans that 17 OECD governments enacted between 1978 and 2009.
It has often been said that if we don't learn from our past mistakes, we are doomed to repeat them. And the way to identify those mistakes is to go back in history and quantify (analyze) what happened under similar conditions, policies, and/or actions. This is referred to as "research". From research, we can identify common or repetitive themes, rates of frequency of occurrences, and hence probabilities of future occurrences.
This is what we do as market timers. Our work is all about probabilities - the rate of frequency between cyclical occurrences in financial markets, as well as the correlation of those cyclical occurrences in human activities (like financial markets) to geocosmic cycles.
Very seldom do we find any cycle - geocosmic or rhythmic - that has a 100% historical correlation to exact tops or bottoms in financial markets. Even if we use orbs of time, or orbs of degrees between exact planetary aspects, to create dynamic time bands (instead of static ones as used by some cycles analysts), the existence of 100% correlations is very rare. In our methodology to be taught at the forthcoming MMA Market Timing Academy, we will use correlations that might have a rate of frequency as low as 65%. We prefer those with a correlation of over 80% (82% or more is our standard).
A couple of the correlations between cyclical studies and the U.S. stock market that will be taught at MMTA were shared this week with our subscribers. That is because these particular correlations with a "high rate of frequency" are in effect now. They suggest an important long-term cycle crest in the U.S. stock market is nearby. The letter sent out to subscribers - and which represents the kind of education MMTA students will be receiving April 6-8 - shared the following findings :
"I just finished a study for the MMTA on the 4-year stock market cycle. Only three (of 30) four-year cycles have topped out after the 49 th month since the study began in 1893. March 2013 is the 48 th month of the current 4-year cycle. This suggests the high could unfold anytime by the end of April, followed by a minimum 20% decline (87% probability that the decline is at least 20% from the crest to the trough). There have been no instances of a first 4-year cycle phase within the greater 18-year cycle declining less than 20% (6 cases). The range of declines has been 21-51%. This is the first 4-year cycle phase of the greater 18-year cycle, off the March 2009 low. The decline can last at least two months once it begins (97% probability). Usually it is more like 12-18 months (83% probability) at the end of the first phase".
As this study suggest, the crest of the 4-year cycle has a high probability of culminating this month or next. The historical rate of frequency - and hence the probability of occurrence - is not 100%. It is 90%. The longest bull market period within the 4-year cycle has been 60 months, or 5 years, which took place August 1982 through August 1987. The probability that this current bull market will last beyond April (perhaps as long as March 2014) is 10%. However, our forecasts - upon which our recommendations are given - are based upon high probabilities like this. I wish they were inevitabilities - the 100% variety - but that absolute certainty just doesn't exist, except in the minds of those who have an over-active Neptune in their chart.
To be continued (next week).
Our monthly MMA Cycles report and its companion MMA Japanese Cycles and MMA European Cycles reports will come out this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, or attachment via direct emails, for subscribers.- This report covers our long term analysis of the stock market (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, T-Notes, Euro and Swiss Franc currencies, grains and crude oil. It also provides the list of geocosmic and solar-lunar reversal zones for the 1-2 months. This report comes out Monday night to subscribers.
MMTA FIRST WORKSHOP ON "CYCLES AND CHART PATTERNS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS", APRIL 6-8, 2013. MMTA will conduct its first workshop course on "Cycles and Chart Patterns in Financial Markets", April 6-8, 2013. This is the first course of the new Merriman Market Timing Academy (MMTA), and is open to non-MMTA students via this webinar. This course will outline the various cycles (long-, intermediate-, and short-term) in financial markets, and the various phases and patterns that unfold in each. Chart patterns that correlate with cyclical troughs and crests will be shown and discussed in detail. Attendees will then be instructed on trading and investment strategies for each type of cycle, as well as their phases. The live webcast will take place from 10 :00 AM - 6 :00 PM Saturday and Sunday (with snack and lunch breaks), as well as Monday from 10 :00 AM - 4 :00 PM. The raw footage will be available for review for attendees for the 30 days following this course. For this course, you will need a computer with speakers. The cost for this course is $3000.00. For further information, please go to www.merrimanmta.com, or contact Maureen Hogan.
Forecast 2013 Book : is out. And the E-Book will be out early next week (our apologies for the delay, but it is coming). In retrospect, this year's book was the most enjoyable to write in a long time. It was very pleasing to hear our editors in both the USA and abroad comment that it was also their most enjoyable read of all the ones they have edited. I think that may be due to the fact that I gave a wealth of advice on "what to do" now - a well-thought out investment plan for 2013 based on the implications of cycles and geocosmic studies as they apply to 2013. The book may still be pre-ordered at $55.00, plus postage prior to December 15. It will also be available in an e-book format at these same prices, and with no postage costs. The book is 160 pages, and as always, a limited number will be printed, based on pre-publications sales. So order now, save big bucks, and make sure you reserve your 2013 book before they sell out!!! Once they sell out, however, you can still buy the electronic book version.
To order, you may call MMA offices at 1-248-626-3034, or contact Amber. Or go to our website link. We have also posted a "Scorecard" of this year's forecasts.
By the way, 2013 should be very interesting as there will be a super-rare configuration in effect by the summer. We are doing our research on the frequency of this pattern now, along with its historical corresponding themes.
We are pleased to announce the completion of "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 2 : Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles". We expect this book to be in print sometime in September - hopefully in time for the September 15-16 workshop. This means that the special $75.00 pre-order rate will end August 15. At that point, the normal rate of $125 (plus postage) will go into effect. To take advantage of the special pre-order discount price, please go to.
Recently I announced that I will be starting a new direction in life over the next two years, involving a mentor-apprenticeship program on Financial Market Timing and Analysis, according to the unique methodology I have developed over the past 30+ years. I didn't expect any response yet, as we are still developing the format. But… there has been a huge response! We know we are behind the curve on getting out information on this rapidly developing project, but we are working out the details and more announcements will be made shortly. So far we have determined that the training will take place over eight weekends stretching from 2013-2014. The dates for 2013 have now been selected. They are : April 6-8, June 15-17, Aug 10-12, and Oct 12-14. The 2014 schedule will be determined in 2013 . These 8 sessions will be the only time that Raymond Merriman will give this entire training in person. Applications for the "On Line Market Timing Academy" (OLMTA) are being accepted now. There will be an introductory training session, September 15-16 in Troy, Michigan (see below). For more information, or an application form, please contact Amber Lundsten, call 1-248-626-3034, or go to or scroll down the opening page (next page) of www.mmacycles.com.
Raymond Merriman's "Market Timing Academy" (MMTA) will offer a pre-training course on "Beginning Principles of Financial Astrology for Financial Market Timing", September 15-16, in Troy, Michigan, at the Management Education Center of Michigan State University. This 10-12 hour course may be attended live, in person, or via webcast televised to your computer. An archive of this workshop will be available for 30 days afterwards to those who sign up. This workshop will basically train non-astrologers in the use of reading an ephemeris, the table of planetary positions for any given day. This is essential to anyone who wishes to understand how to find a geocosmic critical reversal date for financial markets. This course (or audit of it) is a pre-requisite for anyone entering the MMTA market training course, as developed and instructed by Raymond Merriman. The MMTA two-year training course will begin in April 2013, and will involve 8 weekends of study - 4 weekends each in 2013 and 2014. For more information and registration, please go to www.mmacycles.com (front page, near bottom). We will make announcements as this training program unfolds. The cost for the September 15-16 pre-training workshop is $395.00 ($300 for MMA subscribers). This cost will be deducted from the fee of the two-year training course to those who apply and are accepted into MMTA by October 15, 2012.
The DVD of the MMTA pre-training workshop on "How to Read an Ephemeris" is now out! The cost of the 8-set, 10+ hour DVD packet, is $395.00 plus postage, and will include the workbook. If you are a trader, analyst, or student interested in enhancing your skills in market timing, or if you are considering applying for admittance to the MMA Market Timing Academy (MMTA), then this DVD is highly recommended.
Speaking of our weekly subscription reports, we now offer a new one titled : MMA Weekly Treasuries, Soybeans, and Crude Oil Report. This will be a 3-5 page report offering comments, analysis, forecasts, and trading strategy for next week's market activity in the U.S. 10-Year T-Notes (Treasuries), Soybeans, and Crude Oil futures only. List of support/resistance areas, trend indicator points, geocosmic and lunar reversal points for the week, cycles phasing, and recommended buy and sell strategies. The cost is $750/yr or $250/3 months. We will offer a one-month trial subscription for $50.00, available only until August 15, as part of our introduction to this new service. Subscriptions are delivered by downloadable postings on the MMA Website, which is entered via your personal password. It is also delivered via an email attachment to all subscribers over the weekend before the market opens.
The DVD of the Denver Workshop on Financial Market Timing is still available! This financial markets workshop offers a completely unique and original perspective, integrating :
1) Market Timing studies,
2) Price Objective calculations,
3) Technical Analysis,
4) Pattern Recognition studies, and
5) Trend Analysis.
The primary focus of this workshop is on Market Timing Studies, particularly Cycles Analysis and Geocosmic Studies, as leading indicators that identify when to anticipate a reversal in all financial markets. Gold and the U.S. stock market are studied in great detail, especially regarding their current status. There is a wealth of timely and valuable information in this DVD, especially pertaining to the forthcoming Uranus-Pluto square of June 24, 2012, lasting through March 2015, and the important Jupiter correlation to stock market cycles coming up August-November 2012 and March-May 2013. The cost for this 4-hour DVD is $180.00 plus postage. To order, or call Amber at 1-248-626-3034. If you are a trader or investor who appreciates the value of market timing - especially in the next few months - this is a presentation you will not want to miss.
If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations,
(see a sample there, of the weekly).
It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report.
If you want more information call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers :"I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000. Thanks for your excellent publications". - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.
Upcoming Events :
March 8, 2013 : Scottsdale, AZ "Forecast 2013", Sponsored by ASA - the Arizona Society of Astrology. Call 602-952-1526 for further more information, or go to www.AzAstrologers.org. You may also email ASA program director Arlene Hougland at firstname.lastname@example.org.
April 6-8, 2013 : MMTA Course 1 : "Cycles and Chart Patterns in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location : MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan. This will be the first of eight courses given by The Merriman Market Timing Academy (MMTA). It is available to those who attend onsite, or via a live webcast that will take place from 10 :00 AM - 5 :00 PM Saturday and Sunday, as well as Monday from 10 :00 AM - 1 :00 PM, followed by a two-hour exam for those wishing to receive a certificate upon the completion of the MMTA entire 8 course program. The raw footage will be available for review for attendees for the 30 days following this course.
June 15-17, 2013 : MMTA Course 2 : "Geocosmic Correlations to Long-Term Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location : MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.
August 10-12, 2013 : MMTA Course 3 : "Geocosmic Correlations to Primary and Trading Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location : MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.
October 12-14, 2013 : MMTA Course 4 : "Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Reversals in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location : MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.
The MMA Catalogue of products and services for 2013 is now out!!! You can download it in PDF. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not mail these out by mail unless requested.
We are pleased to announce that the Spanish publication of "Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing" has just been completed. For more information and ordering, please contact www.lecochonsideral.info/semana.html.
I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at email@example.com, or 1-(303) 545-5837. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at firstname.lastname@example.org. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as to exactly when to enter and exit any market. They will be more than happy to assist you.
To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the"Best in-house fund of funds" in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, please contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.
The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for…many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifies"Big Range Days" - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders : high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is that"extra edge". And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.