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The best market timing for Silver

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
July 7 - 2014
Raymond A. Merriman©

Financial Market Analyst & Market Timer.

The printed version of Forecast 2014 has been translated into several different languages again this year as follows :

ChineseChinese        Dutch        Deutsch         Japanese       Russian                               Spanish       Italiano

Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2014, as will our Chinese distributor : Your work is essential to anyone who is serious in this field. I can't thank you enough for it.

Go to the sheet for Downloading the video for the Ultimate book on stock market timing.

Please note : The Forecast 2014 Book is now available at a reduced price of $ 35.00 while supplies last. The year is now nearly half over, and already many of the forecasts made have unfolded.
In Late September, we will begin taking pre-orders for Forecast 2015 at a special pre-publication price. Stay tuned for details.

Review and Preview Special edition :

Happy birthday USA! You are now 238 years old. Of course, we aren't exactly sure when you were born. Was it July 2, July 4, or some other date altogether ? Well, regardless of when you bounced onto the world stage as a newborn entity, the nation celebrates your birthday on July 4. And for this, your 238 th solar return (the moment the earth and Sun return to the same relationship in the heavens that they were in at birth), the USA stock markets celebrate with yet another new all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for instance, closed above 17,000 last week for the first time ever. In addition to that, your employment reports continue to improve, with 288,000 new jobs created last month, far above the 215,000 that was estimated. Indeed, it is cause for a celebration !.

And do not for one moment think these are not very special gifts. How many countries get to have such gifts as a much better-than-expected jobs report and a new all-time high in their stock markets ? Especially at a time when their government (particularly the executive branch) is going through such a monumental disconnect with its citizens, amidst on onslaught of scandals (phony or real), and a series of consecutive setbacks by the nation's Supreme Court. Why, you would think the rules have somehow been altered just to make sure you - and the people that you serve - would enjoy a fabulous birthday, no matter what the news of the day just happens to be.

So, let's talk about your birthday gifts for 2014. As reported in the Wall Street Journal last week, this birthday is special because it is the first time since 1993 that not only has your stock market performed at historic new highs for the first half of the year, but your bond and commodity markets have performed well too! How very rare and cool is that !.

Let's see, who was that gift from ? Oh yes! Your very generous central bankers, who - for the last 5+ years - have engineered your interest rates to a near-zero level, which in turn has forced investors to take on more risk than historically normal in order to achieve higher yields no longer available through historically conventional means. Why, the last time the investment community took on this much leveraged risk was in. let's see . according to charts via Thompson-Reuters, it was in 2006-2007. Wait a minute! Wasn't that just before. Wasn't the reason for the financial meltdown in the USA, which spread across the entire globe in 2008, because of. And that is why these sorts of lending and investment practices are referred to as the start of "credit bubbles". Oh, what the heck. bubbles. I mean, "bubbles" are supposed to be part of the celebration of a birthday party for someone as big as America, aren't they ?.

So, we are just wondering : what happened after 1993, the last time the first half of the year witnessed gains in stocks, bonds, and commodities ? Hmmmm... . I hate to put a damper on the party (like the Supreme Court has just done in the last two weeks), but. wasn't 1994 a recession year ? Wasn't that the year that Orange County defaulted on its bond obligations, the largest municipal default in USA history ? Didn't the stock market actually fall most of that year (4-year cycle low in November) ? Didn't bonds lose big that year (yes they did) ? And Gold and Silver also lost value that year.

Is there a lesson to be learned from the past ? Always. But for now, enjoy it while it lasts. Enjoy it like is in 1993, a year in which the stock market suffered no major declines of more than 4.25%, and a year in which the high of every month exceeded the high of the prior month, except in April - which was less than 1 point in the DJIA. It sounds a lot like what has happened since June 2012. The DJIA has not had a 10% decline since October 2011, although it came close in June 2012. Since then, no declines have exceeded 7.5%. That's right. It has been over 2 years now since the DJIA experienced a decline of over 7.5%. When was the last time the USA went through 2+ years without a decline exceeding 7.5% ? I can't tell you.

However, I can tell you this. It is quite a gift, and America (and the rest of the world, really) has its central bank to thank for this. At least, for now. That is, the Federal Reserve Board's low interest rate policy has given Americans this incredible gently rising stock market for over 5 years now. It has finally convinced the investment world that low rates will stay around for a very, very long time, and as a result, the markets have exhibited extremely low volatility. With low volatility comes "investor complacency". This is now the "new normal", or so we think. There is a growing 'reach for yield' by investors as they seek ever more complex debt securities with leverage in order to generate greater returns. This process gives rise to 'yield bubbles', and a direct result is the revival of risky lending practices, the very behaviors that gave rise to the financial crisis of 2008-2009. And Uranus (sudden changes) is still in its waxing square aspect to Pluto (debt and lending practices) through the first quarter of 2015. It is interesting that this aspect began in May 2012, the last time the DJIA suffered a 7.5% decline (May-June, 2012). For a Financial Astrologer, it is hard to conceive that the stock market will not make a final top - leading to a major reversal of say 20-50% - before this cosmic rarity ends. At least, that has been its history.

So, just in case you are also wondering, America, maybe you should think about your solar return today, whose themes will last for one year. As always, your solar return Sun is in Cancer on July 4. But this year, your Moon is in Libra, and both are forming a grand square to the ongoing Uranus-Pluto square. You just cannot seem to get beyond these grand cardinal squares in 2014 (to your natal chart and now your solar return chart), and the problems between the government and its people that it portends. And yet, your stock markets - and the stock markets of the world - continue to go up and up. Can it continue ? Can anything continue for long under hard aspects involving Uranus ? Not likely. Not unless entities such as central banks continue to intervene in your financial markets, and engineer prices higher and higher at the risk of a credit expansion that continues to defy gravity. Yet according to the basic laws of gravity, we also know that what goes up must come down, and the higher it goes, the harder it eventually falls.

Shorter-term, this past week represents the 21 st week since the primary cycle began in early February 2014 in most world indices. It is very, very rare to see a primary cycle make new highs after the 21 st week. But then again, it was a special occasion : it was America's birthday week. Now we see what happens after the birthday party ends, as the Feds continue to wind down their monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities and treasuries by the end of this year.

And what about Gold and Silver ? When the investment world finally realizes that the unorthodox accommodative monetary policies of its central banks do not lead to sustainable economic growth, but only boom and bust asset-inflation cycles, Gold and Silver will likely soar. After over 5 years of these historic near-zero interest rate policies and a host of quantitative easing attempts, sustained economic growth is still elusive (the GDP actually fell 2.9% in the last confirmed quarter). The investment community is starting to see this now, as the low in Gold on June 28, 2013, continues to hold. It is just a matter of time. With astrology, it is always ".just a matter of time". And more than any other asset or currency, Gold has stood the test of time.

Best Trades of the Past Week :

A.

For more information on the daily or weekly market reports, please follow this link, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.

Short-Term Geocosmics :  

T.

Longer-Term Thoughts :

W.

To be continued (next week).

Announcements :

             MMA's weekly and daily reports have been extremely accurate and profitable over the past several weeks, especially in equity indices, crude oil, and precious metals. If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or Daily Market reports. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or weekly basis. These weekly reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF's). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). And since early December, these reports have been extremely profitable. As subscriber and trader R.B. of Albuquerque, NM writes, "You have been on an incredible run for a while ; I have never seen anything like it". Well, when everything lines up just right...

             The seventh and final Course in the 2-year the MMTA (Merriman Market Timing Academy) training program will take place August 25-28, 2014, at the Michigan State University's Management Educational Center (MEC) in Troy, Michigan. The title of this course is "Strategies : Putting It All Together". This course will go over each part of the various investment and trading plans using the market timing, technical, price objective, and trend indicator tools studied in these courses. Special attention will be given to the various buy and sell strategies for both position and aggressive traders, once the market enters the time band for a geocosmic critical reversal zone or solar-lunar reversal date. The cost of this course is $3600, and it is available on line or via live attendance. For further information, please visit www.mmacycles.com, www.merrimanmta.com, call 1-248-626-3034, or email ordersmma@msn.com. The course will be open to all subscribers to join.

             The first year of MMTA (the Merriman Market Timing Academy) is now completed! The courses (all 4 together, or separately) are available via our LMS website-uploadable venue (no postage), or in DVD, to those who wish to become students of MMA's methodology. Each course comes with a full workbook (90-130 pages each). For a complete description of these courses - and those yet to come - please visit www.merrimanmta.com, or call 1-248-626-3034.

             Our monthly MMA Cycles report and its companion MMA Japanese Cycles and MMA European Cycles reports went out last week. If you are subscriber to any these monthly reports and did not receive it, let us know at once via our email.
- This report covers our long term analysis of the stock market (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, T-Notes, Euro and Swiss Franc currencies, grains and crude oil. It also provides the list of geocosmic and solar-lunar reversal zones for the 1-2 months. This report comes out Monday night to subscribers.
- The MMA Japanese Markets Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen.
- The new MMA Europe Cycles report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX stock indices, each in english only and will be available on Wednesday.
Two-issue trial subscriptions are available for this service for $50.00, which includes the current issue and the next month's as well.
For subscription information, please go to our web site, or call us at 1-248-626-3034. If you are not a subscriber, you can check this service out on a 2-month trial basis for only $50.00.

             Speaking of our weekly subscription reports, we now offer a new one titled : MMA Weekly Treasuries, Soybeans, and Crude Oil Report. This will be a 3-5 page report offering comments, analysis, forecasts, and trading strategy for next week's market activity in the U.S. 10-Year T-Notes (Treasuries), Soybeans, and Crude Oil futures only. List of support/resistance areas, trend indicator points, geocosmic and lunar reversal points for the week, cycles phasing, and recommended buy and sell strategies. The cost is $750/yr or $250/3 months. We will offer a one-month trial subscription for $50.00, available only until August 15, as part of our introduction to this new service. Subscriptions are delivered by downloadable postings on the MMA Website, which is entered via your personal password. It is also delivered via an email attachment to all subscribers over the weekend before the market opens.

             If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations, (see a sample there, of the weekly). It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report.
If you want more information call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers :I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations.  I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA.  In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000.  Thanks for your excellent publications. - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.  

Upcoming Events :

             August 25-28, 2014 : MMTA Course 7 : "Combining Technical Studies, Cycles, and Critical Reversal Dates for Traders". The final course of the 2-year academy.

             September 25-28, 2014 : The ISAR International Astrology Conference, Phoenix, AZ. This will be the "big one" next year with dozens of well-known international astrologers present ! Mark your calendars and plan to attend it. Information will soon be available at www.iasastrology.com.

            January 16, 2015 : Zurich, Switzerland "Trends for 2015".  This will part of a congress on Forecasts for 2015, including Claude Weiss, Monica Kissling. Alexandra Klingenhammer, Verena Bachmann, and Christoph-Schubert-Weller.

             January 17, 2015 : Zurich, Switzerland. A special 5-hour workshop on "The Current Cyclical State of Financial Markets : Where Do We Go from Here ?" 10:30 AM - 4:30 PM. Location will be the Congress House in Zurich. Sponsored by AstroData and MMA-Europe.
For further information, please go to there, or contact ASTRODATA AG, Tel. 41 (0) 43 343 33 66, or email. This will be special, and a great opportunity to meet some very impressive market timers who will be present. Register now as seating is limited !.

             The MMA Catalogue of products and services for 2013 is now out!!! You can download it in PDF. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not mail these out by mail unless requested.

             We are pleased to announce that the Spanish publication of Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing has just been completed. For more information and ordering, please contact www.lecochonsideral.info/semana.html.

             I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 545-5837. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as to exactly when to enter and exit any market. They will be more than happy to assist you.

             To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded theBest in-house fund of funds in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, please contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.

             The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifiesBig Range Days - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders : high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is thatextra edge. And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.


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