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The best market timing for Silver

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
July 14 - 2014
Raymond A. Merriman©

Financial Market Analyst & Market Timer.

The printed version of Forecast 2014 has been translated into several different languages again this year as follows :

ChineseChinese        Dutch        Deutsch         Japanese       Russian                               Spanish       Italiano

Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2014, as will our Chinese distributor : Your work is essential to anyone who is serious in this field. I can't thank you enough for it.

Go to the sheet for Downloading the video for the Ultimate book on stock market timing.

Please note : The Forecast 2014 Book is now available at a reduced price of $ 35.00 while supplies last. The year is now nearly half over, and already many of the forecasts made have unfolded.
In Late September, we will begin taking pre-orders for Forecast 2015 at a special pre-publication price. Stay tuned for details.

Review and Preview :

It is most interesting that the majority of market analysts are now turning bullish on Gold, more than 6 months after the double bottom was completed at 1181 on December 31, 2013. This illustrates the reason why market-timing studies, such as cycles and geocosmic signatures, are so valuable. They are leading indicators, and in many instances they will put traders into (or out of) a market ahead of the crowd. The vast majority of market analysts do not have the tools to answer the question of "when". Their tools generally focus on "price-only" and various mathematical technical studies that identify a change in the long-term trend only after it has already begun. The difference is between using leading indicators, such as market timing studies, versus the lagging indicators. It is even better when the two forms of analysis are combined together, for technical studies often serve as coincident or confirming indicators.

When we think a market is making - or about to make - a long-term cycle bottom or top, we issue Special Reports. The last Special Report we issued on Gold was on January 1, 2014, a holiday, and one day after the low occurred on December 31. In that Special Gold Report, we wrote the following :

" Well, I hadn't planned on working before Friday, January 3, unless something important came up. And sure enough, it did on New Year's Eve, Dec 31. February Gold fell to a new contract low, but not a new "nearby contract" low. March Silver also fell, but not to a new contract or nearby contract low. The low of June 28 held… Thus we also have a case of intermarket bullish divergence between Feb Gold and March Silver at the low of December 31. This is also close enough to our critical reversal zones of December 23 and January 3… In our prior letters, we discussed the possibility that something like this could happen December 30-January 24. This was the time band for an 11-14 week contracted primary cycle, something we would like to see if indeed the 4.25-year, or even 12.5-year cycles were unfolding. The first was due with the low in June 2013. The second could be due anytime in 2013-2014, and ideally December 2013-May 2014. We had that also on June 28, 2013. However, we also like to see some kind of market divergences, which we didn't have June 28. Now we do… In other words, we now have enough bullish leading indicators to suggest that this is a favorable time of low risk/high profit possibility… Your risk is if Gold closes below 1179.40. That's the recommended stop…Best wishes for a happy and prosperous New Year to everyone". Gold never looked back.

Last week, Gold soared to 1346.80, which is up 14% since the low of December 31. Yet only now are the mainstream market analysts turning bullish on Gold.

MMA also issued a Special Report on Silver recently, in the May 13, 2014 edition of the MMA Cycles Report. In that report, we stated :

"The geocosmic implication is that a long-term cycle low or test (double or triple bottom) of a long-term cycle low would take place in Silver before August 8, 2014. It is more likely that the low would occur within two months of May 20, when Mars turns direct (say, March 20-July 20, 2014).... If it is an older primary cycle, then July Silver will take out 18.68 very shortly and probably bottom within the next two weeks. The price target would be 18.83 +/- .40 (which it already achieved on May 1), or 18.22 +/- .43. If that happens, I would expect it to be completed in this current critical reversal zone of May 20 +/- 3 trading days". We were off a little bit on the exact date (I must be slipping). The low occurred seven trading days after May 20, at 1861, right within the overlap of both price targets given. This past week, Silver soared to 2163, an appreciation of 16.2% in less than 2 months.

And what about the U.S. stock market? It started the year at 16,572, and one week ago, on July 3, rallied to a new all-time high of 17,074. This represents a gain this year of 3%, although from the primary cycle low of 15,340 on February 5 (MMA's three-star critical reversal date given in the Forecast 2014 Book was February 7, +/- 3 trading days), the gain has been 11.3%. Yet it is here - in USA stocks - that some market commentators are now pointing to the possibility of a "bubble" and serious decline to begin. As suggested before, the majority of market analysts will not declare stocks bearish until well after the high of this cycle has been completed. They are not market timers. They don't possess or understand the value of leading indicators like market timing tools. Most will always be late.

So let me ask : would you rather be early or late in spotting an all-time high in the stock market ? With Uranus square Pluto, June 2012 through March 2015, it is still my expectation that the long-term stock market cycle will top out before this aspect is completed. And yes, I could be wrong. Sometimes aspects this long can have an orb of up to one-year afterwards as the spillover continues. Nevertheless, this bull market is so late in its cycle that a top could occur at any time. It is already over five years since the long-term low of March 6-9, 2009. We may be issuing a Special Report on Stocks in our next MMA Cycles Report, due July 29. It would be our first special report on stocks in some time.

Is it possible the stock market already topped out on July 3 ? Yes, it is possible, and we covered that possibility - and the signals that support that possibility - in last week's USA birthday column (" Shorter-term, this past week represents the 21 st week since the primary cycle began in early February 2014 in most world indices. It is very, very rare to see a primary cycle make new highs after the 21 st week".). Sure enough, many of the world's stock markets fell last week. Perhaps the worst was in India, where the Sensex index fell nearly 1000 points. But so far, this is just a normal correction that typically occurs at the end of primary cycles.

Best Trades of the Past Week :

It is too early to tell if any of the new positions recommended in the weekly reports will turn out well. Perhaps the best new trades were in metals' ETFs. For the Silver ETF (SLV), the report advised, "Aggressive traders are flat and may go long on a close above 20.06 if prices first drop to 20.03 or lower intraweek, with a stop-loss on a close below the low of the move or 19.90, whichever is lower". The low was 19.99 last Monday and it closed that day at 20.17. By Thursday, it was up to 20.64 and closed the week at 20.57. For the GLD, Gold's ETF, the weekly report stated, "You may also go long at 128.31 on a stop, with a stop-loss on a close below 126". That was elected on Thursday as GLD soared to 129.21. It closed the week at 128.78. Both position and aggressive traders were already long Silver futures from several weeks ago.

The best trades in the daily reports were initiated in the stock indices at the very end of the previous week (July 3), which advised traders in the S&P futures, " Aggressive traders are flat and may… sell short at 1975 +/- 1, or just sell short on the close". The high that day was 1978.25. By Thursday, July 10, they had fallen to 1945.75. They rallied on Friday but still closed the week well in the money.

For more information on the daily or weekly market reports, please follow this link, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.

Short-Term Geocosmics :  

There are several changes taking place in the cosmos this week. On Sunday, July 13, Mercury (planet of trading, commerce, and intellect) will move from its ruling sign of Gemini (intellect) to the more emotionally charged sign of Cancer. It will remain there through July 31. During this brief period, it will form a T-square with the Uranus-Pluto square (July 21-24). Expect wild price swings at that time.

On July 16, Jupiter will change signs, from Cancer to the more active and fun-loving sign of Leo. It will remain in Leo through August 11, 2015. Although Jupiter in Leo is by nature playful and happy (and often a bit too childish), it will form a square by sign to Saturn in Scorpio during this period, which means there will be consequences for immature behaviors, or committing actions outside of community (or legal) boundaries. Don't break the law during this time. There will be a penalty for doing so.

On July 18, Venus will change signs too, moving from Gemini to Cancer, much like Mercury. It will make a T-square to Uranus and Pluto, July 28-31. Prior to that, the Sun and Mars also changing signs on July 23 and July 25 respectively. We will discuss those next week. However, all of these sign changes correspond to changes in collective psychology. It represents a change of focus in investor psychology too, such as described in the beginning of this column (i.e. analysts are switching from a bearish to bullish outlook in Gold, and may soon change their outlook in stocks and bonds as well). We will keep in mind too that transiting Mars will cross the NYSE natal Jupiter/Neptune, and oppose its Saturn, July 11-22. That could produce a secondary top in stocks maybe even a new cycle high, unless panic hits (the downside of a Mars/Jupiter contact). Whatever it is (euphoria and false hope, or panic), Mars-Jupiter tends to exaggerate.

Along with these psychological changes will likely come reversals in the trend of many financial markets, especially within 1-2 weeks of July 20-22, when both Uranus and Saturn go stationary. That is, Saturn will end its retrograde motion and go direct, while Uranus ends its direct motion and will turn retrograde. This will highlight the principles of those two planets, perhaps dramatically. Saturn represents limits, like support and resistance. Uranus represents "breakouts". It has no respect for any limits. It is wild, radical, and independent, often coinciding with periods of collective shock, panic, and/or excitement as new frontiers explode upon the scene for the world to cope with. As if the world hasn't had enough to cope with already, given the three-year transit of Uranus and Pluto now in play. Here comes another cosmic storm.

With Saturn also representing the earth, and Uranus high winds, the period may feature acts of nature's force, such as tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes. In financial markets, it may be like an earthquake too. If you like storms, this may be a very exciting period, for major changes and bold new ideas often follow. Remember the financial meltdown in late 2008, early 2009, when the Federal Reserve initiated a new quantitative easing policy ? That was under a Saturn-Uranus combination (opposition). It was bold, and for five years, that policy saved the world's financial system from collapsing. And now, that policy is about to end. Perhaps there are consequences yet to come from those bold actions. Perhaps there are new bold actions about to be initiated by bankers and world leaders.

Longer-Term Thoughts :

W.

To be continued (next week).

Announcements :

             MMA's weekly and daily reports have been extremely accurate and profitable over the past several weeks, especially in equity indices, crude oil, and precious metals. If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or Daily Market reports. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or weekly basis. These weekly reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF's). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). And since early December, these reports have been extremely profitable. As subscriber and trader R.B. of Albuquerque, NM writes, "You have been on an incredible run for a while ; I have never seen anything like it". Well, when everything lines up just right...

             The seventh and final Course in the 2-year the MMTA (Merriman Market Timing Academy) training program will take place August 25-28, 2014, at the Michigan State University's Management Educational Center (MEC) in Troy, Michigan. The title of this course is "Strategies : Putting It All Together". This course will go over each part of the various investment and trading plans using the market timing, technical, price objective, and trend indicator tools studied in these courses. Special attention will be given to the various buy and sell strategies for both position and aggressive traders, once the market enters the time band for a geocosmic critical reversal zone or solar-lunar reversal date. The cost of this course is $3600, and it is available on line or via live attendance. For further information, please visit www.mmacycles.com, www.merrimanmta.com, call 1-248-626-3034, or email ordersmma@msn.com. The course will be open to all subscribers to join.

             The first year of MMTA (the Merriman Market Timing Academy) is now completed! The courses (all 4 together, or separately) are available via our LMS website-uploadable venue (no postage), or in DVD, to those who wish to become students of MMA's methodology. Each course comes with a full workbook (90-130 pages each). For a complete description of these courses - and those yet to come - please visit www.merrimanmta.com, or call 1-248-626-3034.

             Our monthly MMA Cycles report and its companion MMA Japanese Cycles and MMA European Cycles reports went out last week. If you are subscriber to any these monthly reports and did not receive it, let us know at once via our email.
- This report covers our long term analysis of the stock market (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, T-Notes, Euro and Swiss Franc currencies, grains and crude oil. It also provides the list of geocosmic and solar-lunar reversal zones for the 1-2 months. This report comes out Monday night to subscribers.
- The MMA Japanese Markets Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen.
- The new MMA Europe Cycles report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX stock indices, each in english only and will be available on Wednesday.
Two-issue trial subscriptions are available for this service for $50.00, which includes the current issue and the next month's as well.
For subscription information, please go to our web site, or call us at 1-248-626-3034. If you are not a subscriber, you can check this service out on a 2-month trial basis for only $50.00.

             Speaking of our weekly subscription reports, we now offer a new one titled : MMA Weekly Treasuries, Soybeans, and Crude Oil Report. This will be a 3-5 page report offering comments, analysis, forecasts, and trading strategy for next week's market activity in the U.S. 10-Year T-Notes (Treasuries), Soybeans, and Crude Oil futures only. List of support/resistance areas, trend indicator points, geocosmic and lunar reversal points for the week, cycles phasing, and recommended buy and sell strategies. The cost is $750/yr or $250/3 months. We will offer a one-month trial subscription for $50.00, available only until August 15, as part of our introduction to this new service. Subscriptions are delivered by downloadable postings on the MMA Website, which is entered via your personal password. It is also delivered via an email attachment to all subscribers over the weekend before the market opens.

             If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations, (see a sample there, of the weekly). It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report.
If you want more information call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers :I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations.  I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA.  In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000.  Thanks for your excellent publications. - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.  

Upcoming Events :

             August 25-28, 2014 : MMTA Course 7 : "Combining Technical Studies, Cycles, and Critical Reversal Dates for Traders". The final course of the 2-year academy.

             September 25-28, 2014 : The ISAR International Astrology Conference, Phoenix, AZ. This will be the "big one" next year with dozens of well-known international astrologers present ! Mark your calendars and plan to attend it. Information will soon be available at www.iasastrology.com.

            January 16, 2015 : Zurich, Switzerland "Trends for 2015".  This will part of a congress on Forecasts for 2015, including Claude Weiss, Monica Kissling. Alexandra Klingenhammer, Verena Bachmann, and Christoph-Schubert-Weller.

             January 17, 2015 : Zurich, Switzerland. A special 5-hour workshop on "The Current Cyclical State of Financial Markets : Where Do We Go from Here ?" 10:30 AM - 4:30 PM. Location will be the Congress House in Zurich. Sponsored by AstroData and MMA-Europe.
For further information, please go to there, or contact ASTRODATA AG, Tel. 41 (0) 43 343 33 66, or email. This will be special, and a great opportunity to meet some very impressive market timers who will be present. Register now as seating is limited !.

             The MMA Catalogue of products and services for 2013 is now out!!! You can download it in PDF. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not mail these out by mail unless requested.

             We are pleased to announce that the Spanish publication of Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing has just been completed. For more information and ordering, please contact www.lecochonsideral.info/semana.html.

             I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 545-5837. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as to exactly when to enter and exit any market. They will be more than happy to assist you.

             To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded theBest in-house fund of funds in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, please contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.

             The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifiesBig Range Days - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders : high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is thatextra edge. And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.


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